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As of Wednesday morning, several National League teams are still in a fierce battle for a postseason berth, trailing the sixth seed by 4.5 games or less.
This tight race has been a daily narrative for fans as July 13. Wiht the regular season winding down, the question on everyone’s mind is: can any of these underdog teams mount a late comeback to sneak into the playoffs?
In the American League, if the season ended
Key Takeaways
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Several NL teams are within 4.5 games of the final wild-card spot as of Wednesday morning.
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The San francisco Giants have shown significant recent improvement, making them a buy at +550 odds.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, and St. Louis Cardinals are facing steeper odds to make the postseason.
Fighting for a Wild Card Spot
The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently 4.5 games back with a 3.1% chance of making the postseason, according to Baseball-Reference. Their odds to make the postseason are +3000 via DraftKings.
Arizona briefly flirted with a dramatic turnaround, much like detroit’s improbable run in 2024. Though, three consecutive losses to Boston and San Francisco have likely ended those hopes. Facing a tough schedule against the Giants, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres in their final series, overcoming this deficit appears nearly impossible.
Verdict: Selling Diamondbacks at +3000.
The Cincinnati Reds are 3.0 games out, with a 12.6% postseason probability. Their odds to make the cut are +850.
just three weeks ago, the Reds where only one game behind the New York Mets, showing steady progress. Though, a recent stumble with eight losses in nine games has set them back.Despite a series win against the Mets, catching both San Francisco and New York presents a significant challenge. The +850 line might be fair, but it’s a pass for now.
Verdict: Selling Reds at +850.
The San Francisco Giants sit 2.0 games back, holding a 21.5% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their odds are +550 to make the postseason.
The Giants were in dire straits three weeks ago,languishing seven games below .500 after losing 11 of 13 contests. At that point, they were 7.5 games behind the Mets for the final wild-card spot and 12 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
however, a remarkable surge of 13 wins in their last 16 games has revitalized their playoff hopes. The wild-card deficit is now manageable, and even the division title remains within reach, just seven games back with seven games left against Los Angeles. Against all odds, the Giants now control their own destiny, especially with the Mets seemingly losing interest in theirs.
verdict: Buying Giants at +550.
The St.Louis Cardinals are 4.5 games behind, with a slim 0.8% chance of postseason play. Their odds are +4000.
It’s surprising the Cardinals even had a pulse for the No. 6 seed entering September, considering their 35-45 record in june, July and August. With only one three-game winning streak in their last 69 games, an improbable surge would be required for them to bridge this gap.
Verdict: Selling Cardinals at +4000
