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Record-Breaking 2025 Sees 324 Orbital Launches, But Future Growth Faces Uncertainty
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A surge in global launch activity continued in 2025, with a new annual record of 324 orbital launch attempts, though the pace of expansion may soon shift as key players adjust their strategies. The figure, compiled from open-source data by spacenews, underscores a period of rapid growth in space access, but also hints at potential challenges ahead.
Launch Activity Soars to new Heights
The 324 launches in 2025 represent a important 25% increase over the previous record of 259 attempts in 2024. That year itself saw a 17% jump from the 221 launches recorded in 2023, demonstrating a consistent upward trend in recent years. It’s important to note that this tally excludes suborbital launches, including five developmental test flights of SpaceX’s Starship and three launches utilizing the HASTE variant of Rocket Lab’s Electron.
spacex and China Dominate the Launch Landscape
The primary drivers of this growth have been SpaceX and launch providers in china. As far back as 2020, when 107 orbital launches occurred globally, SpaceX completed 26 Falcon 9 missions, while Chinese operators executed 35. In 2025, SpaceX dramatically increased its output, conducting 165 Falcon 9 missions – more than all other nations and companies combined. China followed with 92 orbital launches, utilizing approximately two dozen different rocket families operated by both state-owned enterprises and emerging private startups.
US and China Account for the Majority of Launches
The United States led all nations with 193 orbital launch attempts in 2025, a figure that includes launches from New Zealand by Rocket Lab, a U.S.-headquartered company. combined, the United States and China accounted for a ample 88% of all orbital launches worldwide in 2025, solidifying their positions as the dominant forces in space access.
Future Growth Hinges on Shifting Strategies
While chinese launch activity is anticipated to continue expanding in 2026 with the introduction of new vehicles and increased flight rates – especially to support the deployment of the Guowang and Qianfan satellite constellations – the outlook for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is less certain.
According to a company representative speaking in July, 2025 and 2026 are likely to represent the peak of Falcon 9 launch activity. Following this period, SpaceX intends to increasingly rely on its Starship vehicle for missions, including those currently served by the Falcon 9. This transition will encompass launches for Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, as the company develops a new generation of Starlink satellites specifically designed for starship’s larger payload capacity.
SpaceX initially targeted 175 to 180 Falcon 9 launches in 2025, but later revised that goal downward to 165.
starship and New Vehicles Poised to fill Potential Gap
should Falcon 9 launch rates plateau or decline in 2026, other launch systems are expected to help mitigate the slowdown.Starship is projected to begin orbital launches in 2026, albeit after significant delays, supporting Starlink deployment and in-
