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Texas 2026 Election Outlook: Trump Endorsements Loom large, New Survey Reveals
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A new statewide survey offers a first look at the shifting political landscape in Texas as the state prepares for the 2026 elections, revealing the significant influence of former president Donald Trump and highlighting voter uncertainty in key primary races.
Honoring a Legacy of texas Leadership
The research, spearheaded by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, builds upon the legacy of Texas political giants Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby, Congresswoman Barbara Jordan, and Congressman Mickey Leland. These leaders, dedicated to serving the Lone Star State during a period of rapid change in the early 1970s, inspired the launch of the five-year Texas Trends Survey in 2021. The project aims to provide policymakers and community leaders with objective data on the state’s evolving population and opinions.
Key Findings from the 2025 Texas Trends Survey
Fielded between September 18 and September 29, 2025, the survey polled 1,200 registered Texas voters and provides a snapshot of voter preferences and concerns. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:
U.S. Senate Primary: Paxton and Cornyn Lead, hunt Lags
In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is not seeking re-election, creating an open seat. Current Attorney General Ken Paxton leads the field with 35% support, followed closely by Senator John Cornyn with 33%. Businessman Ben Hunt trails with 22%. A notable 11% of voters remain undecided.
However,name recognition appears to be a significant factor. While a vast majority of Republican primary voters (94% and 90% respectively) are familiar with Paxton and Cornyn, only 69% feel they know enough about Hunt to form an opinion.
The Power of a Trump Endorsement
The influence of former President Trump remains potent within the Texas Republican electorate. A full 50% of Republican primary voters indicated they would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump in the U.S. Senate primary, while only 10% said an endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. 40% stated a Trump endorsement would have no impact on their decision.
Similarly, in the Attorney General primary, 56% of Republican primary voters would be more inclined to support a Trump-endorsed candidate.
Democratic Senate Primary: Allred and Talarico Lead
On the Democratic side, the race for the U.S. Senate nomination is also competitive. Colin Allred currently leads with 46% of likely primary voters,followed by James Talarico at 42%,with 12% still unsure.
An alternate scenario, factoring in potential candidates not yet formally in the race, shows a more fragmented field. Jasmine Crockett leads at 31%, with Talarico and Beto O’Rourke tied at 25%, and allred at 13%. 6% of voters remain undecided in this hypothetical four-candidate primary. It’s crucial to note that neither Crockett nor O’Rourke have officially announced their candidacy.
Attorney General Race: Roy Leads, But Faces Recognition Challenges
In the Republican primary for Texas Attorney General, Chip Roy currently leads with 40% of likely primary voters. Though, like Hunt in the Senate race, Roy faces a significant challenge with name recognition. A substantial 36% of Republican primary voters admitted they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. This lack of familiarity is even more pronounced for other candidates: 65% don’t know enough about Mayes Middleton, 63% about Aaron Reitz, and 58% about Joan Huffman.
Shifting Support for President Trump
The survey also examined current support for former President Trump. While 56% of respondents reported voting for Trump in 2024, only 49% indicated they would do so today. This decline in support is notably noticeable among Latino voters who previously supported Trump, with a drop from 53% in 2024 to 41% currently.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 Texas Trends Survey provides valuable insights into the evolving political landscape of the state. As Texas continues to grow
