The culmination of a season’s “work” for about a third of the NBA will be realized this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in Chicago. For the teams that spent the winter intentionally stumbling, the objective was never the win-loss column in March, but rather the mathematical probability of a transformative talent in June. The 2025-26 season witnessed a level of tanking that felt less like strategic rebuilding and more like a race to the bottom, as front offices aligned themselves with a 2026 draft class carrying immense promise.
For the fanbases in Washington, Utah, Indiana, Brooklyn, and Sacramento, the experience has been grueling. These supporters were subjected to a mere facsimile of professional basketball—a season of missed rotations and experimental lineups designed to collect ping-pong balls. The central question now is whether the psychological toll on the fans and the potential friction with the league office were worth the gamble.
If a team lands within the top four, the answer is likely yes. This particular lottery is not just about a single player; it represents the end of an era. What we have is the final year the current lottery structure will be in place. Reports indicate a “3-2-1” system will be implemented next season, creating a “relegation zone” where the teams with the worst records will see their lottery odds drop significantly. For the league, it is a move to kill the “lose-to-win” mentality; for the teams tanking now, it is a final, desperate window to exploit the old rules.
The End of the ‘Lose-to-Win’ Era
The lottery system currently in play has been the standard since 2018, designed to slightly flatten the odds so the absolute worst team doesn’t automatically hold the best chance at a franchise-altering player. On Sunday, that math will be put to the test. The Washington Wizards, who finished with the league’s worst record at 17-65, are guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth. However, they share the peak probability with the Indiana Pacers (19-63) and the Brooklyn Nets (20-62), each holding a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
| Team | Record | Odds for No. 1 Pick | Floor (Lowest Pick) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 17-65 | 14% | 5th |
| Indiana Pacers | 19-63 | 14% | N/A |
| Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | 14% | N/A |
The theater of the event is carefully choreographed. While the NHL embraces the live chaos of balls bouncing in a tube, the NBA prefers a controlled reveal. The actual drawing happens in private, witnessed by team representatives and select media members to prevent “frozen-envelope” conspiracies. What the public sees is the curated reveal: Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum opening oversized envelopes to reveal placards.
The figures on stage are often a mix of the present and the past. Atlanta Hawks general manager Onsi Saleh will be there, as will Hall of Famer Vince Carter representing the Brooklyn Nets. The Charlotte Hornets will be represented by rookie of the year runner-up Kon Knueppel. These representatives are kept in the dark until the moment of reveal, ensuring that the reactions—the gasps of joy or the slumped shoulders of disappointment—are genuine.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Long-Game Payoff
While the bottom-feeders are fighting for survival, the most intriguing storyline involves the defending NBA champions. The Oklahoma City Thunder, a team already ascending toward a potential dynasty, could theoretically land the No. 1 overall pick. This is the result of a high-stakes gamble taken years ago by the Los Angeles Clippers.
The catalyst was the trade for Paul George, which saw the Clippers send five first-round picks, two swaps, and a then-unproven Canadian guard named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City. Because the Clippers missed the playoffs this season, their unprotected pick conveys to the Thunder. While the odds are slim—a 1.5 percent chance at No. 1 and a 7.1 percent chance to leap into the top four—the implications are staggering. Adding a generational talent to a roster that already features Gilgeous-Alexander would be a move of unprecedented leverage.
The Clippers’ draft fortunes are further complicated by a trade-deadline deal that sent center Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers. That deal included a protected first-round pick; if that pick falls between Nos. 5 and 9, it goes to L.A. The math currently favors the Pacers, who have a 52 percent chance of landing in the top four, but the 48 percent chance of falling into the 5-6 range keeps the Clippers’ front office hopeful.
A Web of Picks: The Hawks and Pelicans
Beyond the Thunder, the lottery features a complex web of transactions that could reward the Atlanta Hawks for a successful season. Despite winning 46 games and returning to the playoffs, the Hawks are positioned to make a lottery selection on June 23.
This is the result of a head-scratching draft-day deal from last year. The New Orleans Pelicans traded up with Atlanta for the rights to Derik Queen, giving up the rights to Asa Newell and a first-round pick. That pick conveys to Atlanta as the better of the Pelicans’ or the Milwaukee Bucks’ selections. Essentially, the Hawks could land a top-four pick despite being a winning team. Meanwhile, the Bucks will receive the lesser of the two picks, and the Pelicans receive nothing but the hope that Queen becomes an All-Rookie talent.
The Peterson Question and the 2026 Class
The desperation to tank this season was driven by the perceived depth of the 2026 class. Scouts suggest that almost any player projected in the lottery has the floor of a solid NBA starter, with the top three possessing All-NBA ceilings. However, the consensus top prospect, Peterson, carries a cloud of uncertainty.
Peterson’s limited game time this season sparked questions about his competitive drive and desire. However, reporting from ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne provided a medical explanation: the 19-year-old was suffering from full-body cramps caused by an excessive dosage of creatine. Whether the public and opposing GMs accept this explanation is a variable that could impact his draft stock. For the first time, there is a legitimate conversation about whether Peterson could slip out of the top three, a notion that seemed impossible a year ago.
The lottery results will be finalized this Sunday, setting the stage for the June 23 draft. The next official checkpoint for teams will be the formal submission of draft boards and the commencement of pre-draft medical evaluations.
Do you think the NBA’s reported move to a “3-2-1” system will actually stop tanking, or will teams just find new ways to lose? Let us know in the comments.
