Russia is close to concluding an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to maintain its military bases in Tartus and the khmeimim airbase.
Negotiations about the continued presence of Russian troops are being conducted against the backdrop of changes in Syria. Anonymous sources from Moscow, Europe and the Middle East confirmed that discussions are underway to continue operating the Tartus naval base, which remains Russia’s only point in the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim air base, used for operations in Africa.
According to one Russian source, the Defense Ministry believes it has reached an informal agreement with hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group previously linked to al-Qaeda. This group is leading the offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s forces, but allows russian bases to remain. However, the interlocutor noted that the situation remains unstable and can change at any moment.
The overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime calls into question the long-term lease of Russian bases, concluded in 2017 for 49 years. This agreement was signed two years after Russia began military support for the Assad regime.Now the future of these bases depends on the new balance of power in the region.
Kursor also wrote that the G7 leaders assessed the events in Syria and addressed “all parties.”
The G7 is ready to support a political transition in Syria, but noted that “all parties” must “preserve the territorial integrity of Syria
How do ongoing conflicts in Syria affect RussiaS military partnership with the Assad regime?
Interview: Future of Russian Military Presence in Syria
Interviewer: Welcome to Time.news. Today,we have the pleasure of speaking with dr. Elena markova, a geopolitical analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs. Dr. Markova, there are reports indicating that Russia is nearing an agreement with the new Syrian leadership regarding its military bases in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase. Can you explain the significance of these bases for Russia?
Dr. Markova: Thank you for having me. the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase are critical strategic assets for Russia. Tartus is Russia’s only naval facility in the Mediterranean, providing a crucial foothold for maritime operations and enhancing Russia’s military posture in the region. The Khmeimim airbase, conversely, serves as a vital operational hub not just for Syria but also for Russian missions across North Africa. The continued presence of these bases helps Russia project power and influence throughout the Middle East.
Interviewer: Recent negotiations appear to be unfolding amidst ongoing conflict in Syria, especially with the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has links to al-Qaeda. Could you elaborate on this dynamic and its implications for Russian-Syrian relations?
Dr. Markova: Certainly. The negotiations with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham indicate a complex reality where shifting alliances can either stabilize or destabilize the region. Despite being an adversary to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, this group seems willing to allow Russian bases to remain operational. However, it highlights that the situation is precarious and can change. For Russia, maintaining its military presence in Syria hinges on establishing relations with various factions, not just the official government.
Interviewer: The potential overthrow of the Assad regime poses questions regarding the long-term lease of Russian bases that was agreed upon in 2017. What might this mean for the future of Russian military operations in Syria?
Dr. Markova: The regime’s stability is directly tied to Russia’s military engagements. If Assad where to lose power, the agreements made for the 49-year lease become tenuous, making Russia’s long-term strategy in Syria uncertain. It’s crucial for Russia to adapt to any shifts in power dynamics to ensure its influence endures, thus any new political leadership may reassess the conditions under which Russian forces operate.
Interviewer: The G7 leaders recently addressed the situation in Syria, indicating a willingness to support a political transition while emphasizing the need to preserve syria’s territorial integrity. How does this stance affect Russia’s position in the region?
Dr. Markova: The G7’s approach reflects a desire for a more stable and legitimate governance structure in Syria, which could be at odds with Russian ambitions. While Russia seeks to maintain its influence through military means, the G7’s emphasis on territorial integrity and political transition suggests that external powers are wary of any fragmentation. For Russia, balancing its military strategy with a potential political solution will be essential in maintaining its foothold and advancing its interests.
Interviewer: as a final thought, what practical advice can you offer to our readers about understanding the complexities of international relations in this region?
dr.Markova: It’s essential for observers to recognize the fluidity of alliances and the multifaceted nature of conflicts in the middle East.Keeping an eye on how different players, including external powers like the G7 and local factions, interact can provide valuable insights into potential outcomes. Furthermore, comprehending the implications of military presence versus political legitimacy is key to understanding the future landscape of Syria and broader regional dynamics.
Interviewer: Thank you,Dr.Markova, for your valuable insights on this critical geopolitical issue. We appreciate your time and expertise.
Dr. Markova: Thank you for having me. it’s been a pleasure to discuss these vital matters.