Each week, the monthly weather trend is updated. This lasts until August 14 and concerns the major summer school holidays as well as the start of the harvest. This trend highlights long-lasting hot weather with a heatwave that will only slowly fade after the July 14 long weekend. For the rest, the weather will remain hot and sometimes stormy, with good conditions for vacationers. On the other hand, the drought will experience a very marked worsening. Thunderstorms are not expected to make up the shortfall.
Hot and long-lasting dry weather has settled in the country since the beginning of July. The scorching temperatures will reach peaks at the start of next week before falling, while remaining above normal for the season. The thunderstorms that should eventually return will not be enough to stop the surface dryness.
Week of July 18 to 24: very slow end to the heat wave
At the start of the week, the second peak in intensity of the heat wave was reached with values close to 40°C in a large number of regions, until Tuesday. The cold drop will eventually rise towards the British Isles, causing thunderstorms on the edge, on the northwest of the country. This will lower the temperatures a little in the north, but the values will remain above normal. Elsewhere, the weather will remain desperately dry, without the slightest drop and the drop in temperatures will only be very slow with still scorching values which could last until the end of the week.
Week of July 25 to 31: return of thunderstorms and more bearable heat
This last week of July could mark the end of the anticyclonic blockage with a stormy deterioration that could cross the country, bringing some rain, but very unevenly depending on the region. The temperatures, initially very high, would finally drop, behind the storms. An episode of mistral could follow in the Mediterranean, raising fears of the risk of fires, due to the drought. Whatever happens, this month of July will therefore end with a rainfall deficit that cannot be made up for despite these stormy rains.
Week of 1is to August 7: stormy and warmer again
Another cold drop could form off Portugal, again raising fears of a rise in temperatures from the southwest. It is difficult to be more precise at this time, but the level of temperatures in the country will once again depend on the positioning of this cold drop. A priori, the south would be the most affected by the high heat, even if temporarily the latter could go up to the north. The cold drop could, this time, bring up instability with heavier and stormy weather. Again, these storms will be dispersed and not everyone should be in the same boat.
Week of August 8 to 14: fewer storms and seasonal heat
The cold drop could end up moving up towards France and cause a more marked stormy deterioration at the start of the period before the return of more anticyclonic, less stormy and less hot weather.
This month of July will therefore end with a clear rainfall deficit despite the few storms expected, especially at the end of the month. Temperatures will drop slowly, while remaining above normal for the season. The beginning of August could be warmer again with the specter of strong heat, at least in the south. It will therefore be necessary to monitor this period. Finally, we should find cooler conditions around the second ten days of August with fewer and fewer storms.
Next update, Thursday, July 21 at 5 p.m.
Read also
July weather in France: heat and storms
Seasonal forecast: an always warm, sometimes stormy trend
