The toll continues to worsen, a week after the earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northern Syria. Wednesday, February 8, two days after the shock of 7.8 on the Richter scale, the head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had to recognize “shortcomings” in the government response. A rare confession.
Admittedly, he answered to the leader of the opposition CHP party who, present on the ground, denounced the inaction of the State. But Erdogan did not stop there. On the defensive, he immediately threatened those who “spread fake news”. “We compile files “, he warned while momentarily blocking Twitter through which the survivors communicate and… criticize the power.
“The old repressive reflexes”
President Erdogan reacts with “old repressive reflexes. He is afraid of losing control of society so he censors. But people get around the bans. This crisis shows how disconnected power is from society.analysis Aurélien Denizeau, researcher, specialist in Turkey. “The earthquake is a showcase of the negligence of the AKP”section Dorothée Schmid, Head of the Contemporary Turkey and Middle East Program at Ifri. “The government has a huge image problem. He wants to control everything but cannot because he needs international help. »
Erdogan can only have in mind the Izmit earthquake in 1999 and its consequences. This disaster killed more than 17,000 people. The government of the time, led by Suleyman Demirel, failed to respond to the disaster and, in the following elections, in 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party) wrested power. “In 1999, Erdogan had benefited from the political system. Today it is the system”recalls Jean Marcou, university professor at Sciences Po Grenoble, specialist in Turkey.
A political issue
In just a few days, the earthquake became a political issue. He takes the president by surprise in the middle of the electoral campaign as he seeks a third term, with a timetable that he himself imposed by advancing the ballot to May 14. Only three months to restore the region, reassure and rebuild decent housing and regain control politically. A challenge.
Not to mention the survivors’ anger over the slowness of Turkish relief and the absence of the army, the only one in Turkey to have the means to act in such chaos. “The same thing happened in 1999,” remembers Didier Billion, deputy director of Iris, specialist in Turkey and the Middle East. “She had remained at least thirty days without doing anything, which had triggered the anger of the Turks in a country inhabited by the myth of the protective State. » This time again, the population may doubt the ability to ensure security in the devastated areas: Austrian and German relief efforts were temporarily suspended on Saturday, February 11, due to“assaults” between groups.
This anger is real but it is too early to give it a political meaning, warns Didier Billion, however, while in this kind of disaster, help never comes quickly enough. “But if aid and relief are not better organized to help the victims, it will cost Erdogan dearly”he predicts.
A divided opposition
“With some exceptions, this kind of disaster does not benefit the power in place, unless there is a providential man, and Erdogan is not this man. He has been in power for twenty years, the country is suffering inflation at more than 85%, despite a slight improvementbelieves Jean Marcou. This catastrophe risks dealing a blow to him, whereas in recent months the polls have been a little more favorable to him. » Opposite, will the still divided opposition be able to take advantage of it? Too early to tell, but clearly, in the weeks and months to come, the earthquake will have an impact. “Erdogan lived on cloud nine, believes Jean Marcou, and now the clouds are gathering. »