The distance face-to-face that they held this Tuesday Vladimir Putinin Moscow before both chambers of the Duma, and Joe Bidenin Warsaw, before an enthusiastic audience, represents a critical point in the management of the ukrainian war, 48 hours after one year of the invasion. The president of Russia has gone a step further by withdrawing from the START treaty for the reduction of strategic arsenals; that of the United States has proclaimed that “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia” and that the Western allies will not tire of supporting the Government of Russia. Volodímir Zelenski. An atmosphere of unmitigated tension, fueled by the presence in Moscow of the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, made Beijing increasingly willing to tip the balance on Putin’s side.
Any hope of a possible ceasefire has receded more than it already was. Military logic continues to be the only one applicable on both sides. It has been since day one for a Putin who a year ago wanted to keep the world fooled until the very day he crossed the Ukrainian border. It has been so for the West, which has come to consider the Russian president an autocrat before whom, as in other times, any attempt at appeasement will end up being mocked and against whom, in the words of Biden, only a “no” and “no” will serve anymore. proclaim that “there is no freedom without solidarity”. And it still is for a Ukraine that is not willing to give up its sovereigntyand more so when the promises of military aid continue to be fulfilled and all imaginable Russian weaknesses continue to be exposed in a conventional war.
There is nothing excessively new in all of this, other than the confirmation that it is illusory to expect a cessation of hostilities in the coming months. If the left-wings that still maintain equidistance positions have not found reasons in Putin’s actions over the last year to be clear about who the aggressor is, it is doubtful that the national-religious proclamations of this Tuesday against the values of Western societies will make them reflect. Not even the Russian withdrawal from the START treaty, an irresponsible and defiant gesture, substantially changes the facts of the equation: since long before Putin’s announcement, it was pure illusion to think that Russia was willing to control the amount of its long-range nuclear weapons. The Kremlin has set itself the first objective of liquidating the ‘status quo’ inherited from the fall of the USSR and agreeing directly with the US, without European intervention, on a new one, supported in the operation by China.
For the EU, which has resisted with more difficulties than the US the economic impact of the conflict but notably better than expected, the situation is extremely complex because as long as military logic prevails, it will be at the expense of what the White House has for NATO at all times. And until the situation on the ground makes it clear to both sides how unimaginable an outright victory or defeat for both sides is, things will hardly change. The world needs them to get to that point, but no shortcuts have yet been found to avoid prolonging the conflict for a time that, with the information we now have, it is impossible to predict. It is possible to hope that at least while it continues to be possible avoid escalation mayor.