Wars are not only won in big battles. Gestures of heroism and small tactical victories can have a huge impact on the morale of the troops, the war strategy or the spirit of the citizens who support the rear. In these two twelve months there have been endless such moments: from the raising of the Ukrainian flag on the tiny island of Snakes to the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet; from the epic battle of Azovstal to the Russian conquests of Liman or Soledar. But at the same time it has been a series of major offensives and counter-offensives that have determined the course of the war and the current state of the tortured Ukrainian map.
1. The battle of Kiev
From the first hours of the invasion, the Kremlin’s armored columns pounced on the northern flank of the city while its paratroopers tried to take the Hostomel military airfield, which was to serve as a landing area for airborne troops. But early on, they ran into a endurance more capable than expected. Both from the Ukrainian military and from the civilian volunteers who made use of ingenuity to make up for their armed inferiority.
Local forces blew up the dam north of the capital, flooding roads, bridges over the Irpin River were blown up in the west and ambushes rampant in the east. At times, drones were critical and the blitzkreig got stuck to make way for a position war which devastated several towns in the suburbs.
In loofah and other towns occupied by the Russians for more than a month atrocities were the norm until the Kremlin gave the order to withdraw.
2. The Martyrdom of Mariupol
The capture of Mariupol, a Russian-speaking city of more than half a million close to the Russian borders, was from the outset a crucial strategic objective for the Kremlin. allowed him to establish a land runner to communicate Crimea and its conquests in the south with the eastern regions of Donbas. He got it based on constant shellingnumerical superiority and a siege that left the city hungry, frozen and under constant terror, a tactic that he would also repeat in Chernigov (north).
The battle ended with the surrender of the last Ukrainian soldiers and civilians trapped in Azovstal, a plant with kilometers of tunnels and underground bunkers. His resistance for weeks slowed down the momentum of the Russian offensive and reinforced among the local population the aura of the controversial Azov Battalion, the most capable force in his Army in the eyes of the Ukrainians.
3. The battle for Donbas
It is hard to think that the Kremlin will accept a negotiated solution to the conflict if it fails to usurp at least the loot from Donbas, where, according to some Western intelligence estimates, its next offensive is taking place. All his efforts are now concentrated in the industrial city of Bajmut (Donetsk), already converted into the longest battle of this war and one of the gates for his forces to advance towards Kramatorsk and other areas of Donetsk.
It will probably be more difficult for the Ukrainians to retake Donbas than other Russian-occupied regions. The latter have been installed there since 2014, know the territory well and have erected profuse defenses. The cost for the population that has not yet left the region is brutal after nine years of war.
4. Kharkiv, the first big blow of the counteroffensive
“With the weapons of deceit you will make war.” What is one of the mottos of the Israeli Mossad served the Ukrainians for their counteroffensive in Kharkov. During the spring and summer of 2022, the leadership in Kiev began to telegraph its intentions to launch a major operation to try to retake the occupied areas of the south of the country, but when the time came, counter-offensives began almost simultaneously in the south and northeast, something the Kremlin had not counted on.
In just a few weeks kyiv had recaptured the entire province, which was emptied of Russian troops in early October. In full rout, the Kremlin made a move to announce the illegal annexation of the provinces of Lugansk, Donetsk, Jershon and Zaporiyia, none of them completely controlled by his troops except the first. During the ceremony in Moscow, Putin proclaimed that “they will be part of Russia forever.”
5. The possible victory: Kiev reclaims the right bank of Jershon
After the fall of Kherson, the only provincial capital that Russia has come to control, a cartographic analysis by ‘The New Times’ stated that Ukraine has recovered 54% of the territories captured by the Kremlin since the beginning of the war. In this southern province they still have work to do because the Russian military only withdrew from the areas they occupied for months on the west bank of the Dnieper. Since then, Russia only controls areas to the east of the great river that divides Ukrainian territory in two.
The recovery of Kherson, located on the fertile plains that have made the country one of the breadbaskets of the world, has given Ukrainians back part of their exit to the black sea and it has put the Crimean peninsula within range of its forces, annexed by Russia in 2014. The forecast of some analysts is that Crimea will be left for last, although if it recovers sooner, it would leave Russia without an essential route to supply its troops in occupied Ukraine.