Rebuilding something that has been destroyed offers the opportunity to build it better than it was built before. So, a crisis can be an opportunity to improve something. But can this philosophy really work?
The international team led by Germán Bersalli, from the Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) in Potsdam (Germany), has completed a study in which they have explored the impact of economic crises on decarbonisation; specifically the relationship between peak emissions and economic crises in the 45 countries that are part of the OECD and the G20 between 1965 and 2019.
The results of the study indicate that while crises do not automatically lead to long-term structural changes and decarbonisation, they have played an important role in triggering systemic change. Almost all the countries that have peaked with the consequent drop in CO2 emissions did so during an economic crisis.
At least 28 of these countries reached an emissions peak in the last fifty years, and 26 did so just before or during an economic crisis, suggesting that crises have an effect on national decarbonization processes. These include the oil crises of 1973-75 and 1979-80, the collapse of the Soviet Union (1989-91) and the global financial crisis (2007-09). Even when economic activity in these countries recovered, emissions did not return to pre-crisis levels. This positive development contrasts with the more general global trend of a steady increase in carbon dioxide emissions during this period, punctuated by small drops during crises.
Ambitious climate policies have proven effective in times of crisis. The image represents the concept in an artistic and symbolic way. (Illustration: RIFS / Felix Beger. CC BY-ND)
The researchers describe three mechanisms that can drive long-lasting decarbonization processes in the context of economic crises:
Energy efficiency measures taken by governments and companies in response to rising energy prices or deteriorating economic conditions. “This mechanism was particularly evident during the oil shocks. Countries that peaked during this period (for example, the UK, Germany and France) experienced significant improvements in their energy intensity. Consumption of expensive imported fuels and increased energy efficiency,” says Bersalli. In addition to government measures, companies also responded to the crises and triggered new market trends, such as the shift to smaller and more efficient cars in Western Europe during the oil shocks.
Changes in the economic structure consisting of a decline in energy and carbon-intensive sectors and a rebound, after the crisis, in sectors with fewer emissions per unit of GDP. These changes are driven by economic and sometimes political forces. As economies recover, companies are turning more and more to production lines and facilities that are less energy or carbon intensive, in parallel with a rebound in other activities, for example in the service sector. Bersalli cites Spain as a notable example of this phenomenon: “In Spain, one of the countries hardest hit during the global financial crisis and the subsequent euro crisis, the effects on industry were strong, with a drop in sectoral participation in GDP from 26% in 2007 to 20% in 2015. The construction industry, in particular, collapsed and never recovered to pre-crisis levels. Spain’s return to growth took place in other, less energy-intensive sectors. carbon and energy.
Lastly, new market conditions or public policy changes led to changes in the energy mix that reduced CO2 emissions. For example, in the early 1970s, the first oil crisis had a lasting impact on the energy mix, especially in Western Europe, where nuclear power expanded and emerging renewable energy technologies aroused growing interest.
Johan Lilliestam (RIFS), co-author of the study, stresses that these findings could help build stronger climate action policies: “We are also seeing, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, that ambitious climate policies prove effective in times of crisis Countries leading the transition to a carbon-neutral energy future have used their recovery packages to invest in green sectors and have taken the opportunity to strengthen their market position in emerging carbon-neutral technologies and industries. to a reduction of emissions in the long term”.
The research results also offer an answer to the much-debated question of whether “green growth” is possible: full decoupling between growth and emissions can be achieved if economic growth is moderate. Historically, energy and carbon intensity have rarely declined by more than four percent per year. So even economies that peaked in emissions in the 1970s still have a long way to go to fully decarbonise.
El estudio se titula “Most industrialised countries have peaked carbon dioxide emissions during economic crises through strengthened structural change”. Y se ha publicado en la revista académica Communications Earth & Environment. (Fuente: RIFS / Helmholtz Centre Potsdam)