The cost of energy transition for the Russian economy is unaffordable, said Viktor Vekselberg, chairman of the board of directors of Renova Group, at the session “Earth of the Future. Towards Carbon Neutrality Together ”at the Nobel Vision Forum. His representative clarified to Vedomosti that Vekselberg commented on the latest estimates of the price of the energy transition of Russian financial institutions. In particular, earlier analysts at VTB Capital calculated that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 (reducing CO2 emissions, which are measured in the difference between anthropogenic emissions and their absorption) will cost Russia 102.7 trillion rubles. the most economical way.
The energy transition, according to Vekselberg, can lead to a social crisis, which must be treated with extreme caution. “But there is no alternative to energy transition: the consequences of not changing are unpredictable. They can turn into a real climate catastrophe, ”he stressed.
The fact that the abandonment of traditional energy sources in favor of “green” can increase the level of poverty, VTB said earlier. “The cost of electricity in Europe has increased 2-3 times. Obviously, this is due to energy transition and departure from traditional energy sources. As a result of this energy transition, we will become greener, but possibly poorer, ”said VTB Senior Vice President Dmitry Snesar at the“ Russia Calling! ”Session of the VTB Capital investment forum.
According to Vekselberg, to accelerate the energy transition, uniform rules and standards are needed for the whole world, in particular, it is necessary to decide how to take into account climate certificates, how to calculate emission standards. “Otherwise, we, as an export-oriented economy and integrated into the global economy, could significantly lose,” he stated.
One of the possible incentives for accelerating decarbonization could be the CDA model (a capacity supply agreement that allows to reduce the investment risks of generating companies – Vedomosti), and the development of all alternative generations, Vekselberg said. These areas are regulated by the state through tariffs, so for the development of green technologies, the government could introduce financial support measures, for example, through subsidizing loan rates for such projects, the businessman added.
The Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM) previously estimated the cost of measures to decarbonize the Russian electric power industry from 14 trillion to 24 trillion rubles. investments until 2050. It follows from the Institute’s forecast that the need for electricity by 2050 will amount to 1.32 trillion kWh per year, taking into account the plans for the development of generation and programs to support the construction and modernization of capacities.
The price of electricity by 2030 may grow by 4%, and by 2050 – by 26% if the target scenario of the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia is implemented, the Ministry of Economic Development previously estimated. In the inertial scenario of the project, the cost of electricity in constant prices will not change, while such a scenario will not allow Russia to fully implement its international climate obligations.
According to the Government-approved Low-Carbon Development Strategy, Russia should reduce emissions by 60% by 2050. Further implementation of this scenario will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Full decarbonization by 2060, according to VTB Capital, would require 479 costs. 8 trillion rubles, experts say.
At the same session, the President’s Special Representative for Relations with International Organizations to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals Anatoly Chubais suggested that in the next 30 years a large-scale transformation will take place in the Russian economy, which will force a revision of all basic principles of work in all sectors.
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