The parliamentary elections would now be won by the Together coalition with 31 percent of the vote. The second ANO movement would have 30.5 percent. This follows from the election model published today by the agency Kantar CZ for Czech Television (ČT). The Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) could return to the Chamber of Deputies, to which the model with hypothetical coalitions awarded five percent of the vote. However, if the parties ran independently in the elections, and not in coalitions, ANO would win over the Citizen Democrats. Third in that case would be the Pirates.
The expected profit of the Spolu coalition, which consists of ODS, KDU-ČSL and TOP 09, is currently roughly the same as according to the October model. The opposition movement ANO against the last model strengthened by almost three percentage points. According to Kantar, the Pirate and Starost coalition would now receive 13 percent of the vote.
The fourth place in the model was occupied by the SPD movement with nine percent. This has weakened compared to October, its voters are pouring over to the ANO movement, ČT reported. The social democrats attacked the five percent threshold necessary for entering the House of Representatives. However, it is not certain that they would actually make it to the lower house, as the statistical margin of error of the poll ranges from 1.1 to 3.6 percentage points in either direction. According to Kantar, the Oath Movement would get 2.5 percent, the Communists would get two percent of the votes.
On the other hand, a model that did not include a coalition, but only individual parties and movements, showed different results. The first in that case would be ANO with a gain of 29.5 percent and the second ODS would get 21.5 percent of the votes. Nine percent of the voters would vote for the Pirates running independently. The SPD would have 8.5 percent, Mayors seven and TOP 09 five percent. The Social Democrats would get 4.5 percent and the People’s Party four percent. The deviation in this case is from one to 3.5 percentage points.
Data collection for the election model took place between February 13 and March 3 of this year. The election model included 970 respondents who would go to vote or not rule out participation in the elections, ČT reported.