Supplying Africa with wheat has become one of the stakes in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The two major exporters from the Black Sea are engaged in fierce competition, in words and in fact, to best serve the continent.
Today Ukrainian wheat only comes out in dribs and drabs via the Black Sea Corridor. Shipments destined for Africa and other Ukrainian customers pile up in Eastern European countries where they depress markets and therefore penalize local producers. This paradox is now part of the landscape, says a note published by the Farm foundation. According to this note, Ukrainian wheat destined for the Maghreb leaves from the Romanian port of Constanta and the Bulgarian port of Varna. And the one destined for sub-Saharan Africa is shipped from Poland.
But the logistical capacities are insufficient to handle the quantities destined for the continent
Before the war, Ukraine exported about 8 million tons a year to Africa. Since August 1, 2022, only 3 million tons of Ukrainian grain have been delivered, of which one million tons via the World Food Program. While Russia continues to deliver unhindered to its African customers. Moscow is one of the very first suppliers on the continent, especially in the Maghreb countries. Vladimir Putin pointed out last week that his country has shipped 12 million tonnes to Africa. In the future, agricultural products exported by Russia to Africa could even be free, the head of the Kremlin promised. Russia, which also provides fertilizer free of charge. Malawi has recently benefited from this largesse. Russia therefore has a good head start in this wheat war that the two belligerents are waging to serve African markets. Its advantage could, however, be eroded.
Cargill, a leading wheat trader, announced yesterday that it will cease all such operations from Russia’s Black Sea ports in the future
Vitera, another very active trader in the Russian market could also withdraw. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture says wheat will continue to come out, even without these operators. It has to be, because for Moscow as for kyiv, wheat exports are vital for bringing in foreign currency. And on the African continent, they have become a lever to monetize support for the United Nations. The shortages feared when the hostilities broke out have not materialized, thanks to all the efforts of the other exporting countries to meet the needs and guarantee food security as well as possible. The European Union has largely compensated for Ukraine’s shortcomings. Ukraine has been forced this year to restrict its sowing a little more because of the fighting, while on the Russian side, the next harvest looks promising.
Unless there is a bad weather, there will be first enough wheat for Africa
This is reported by the Farm Foundation. With downsides. If the wheat stored in Europe is still struggling to get out, prices could tighten and the bill soar. Moscow is raising the stakes and demanding that facilities be restored in favor of its bank responsible for international payment operations and that imports of agricultural equipment be authorized again. Otherwise it will refuse to renew the Black Sea agreement which runs until May 19. So suspense until that date. Meanwhile Ukraine densifies its distribution network. It plans to send its wheat through Oman to better serve East Africa. I’ANDEgypt is also ready to welcome a hub for Ukrainian wheat.