Lula da Silva had promised to place Brazil at the center of what he called the “new world geopolitics” and the official visit to China is part of that objective. The Brazilian President will meet, on Friday, with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, with whom he should address the issue of the war in Ukraine and whom he should invite to Brasília. Both countries have not imposed sanctions on Russia and aspire to be mediators in the conflict. To what extent does the trip mark a new axis of geopolitical power?
“I would say that unofficially, this meeting between the leaders of Brazil and China should have some role in fine-tuning diplomatic relations and between states, strengthening joint and alternative economic action in the Northern Hemisphere”, starts by explaining Emerson Cervi, professor at the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of Paranáadding that also “it has to do with the war between Russia and Ukraine”.
On the one hand, the political scientist points out that the “new world geopolitics” that Lula da Silva promised “necessarily goes through economic power” which, in this case, would go through the BRICS bank, the group of emerging countries that includes Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa. Lula da Silva is expected to attend, this Thursday, in Shanghai, the inauguration of former President Dilma Rousseff in the command of that bank, the New Development Bank. China is Brazil’s main trading partner, but the president’s agenda for this visit should be essentially political, days after a business forum with almost 500 Brazilian and Chinese businessmen resulted in the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements. Fostering trade between Brazil and China is, however, the “official objective” of the trip, emphasizes Emerson Cervi.
On the other hand, Brazil may want to be part of the solution to the conflict in Ukraine. Lula da Silva has already positioned himself by saying that the Russian President Vladimir”Putin cannot keep land in Ukraine“, but that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “can’t want it all”. That is, he suggested that Kiev renounce the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, something discarded by the Ukrainian government. On March 25, in Moscow, there was a meeting between Celso Amorim, Lula’s main advisor for international affairs, and Vladimir Putin. Also the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Brazil on April 17th. Furthermore, Lula da Silva refused to send weapons to Ukraine and rejected imposing sanctions against Russia, proposing the creation of a group of mediating countries. China had already proposed itself as a mediator and advanced a proposal for a political resolution calling for an end to hostilities and dialogue. Could Brazil play a mediating role in this conflict? Emerson Cervi answers yes because “that is President Lula’s objective”, but it remains to be seen “if this concertation of alternative forces will not be blocked or impeded by the central geopolitical power that may have other interests and have no interest that a new axis of geopolitical power will emerge”.
“Without a doubt, it would be a victory for Brazil and for President Lula if that happened, but I have doubts that we can, in the end, identify the central role of Brazil or President Lula in a possible solution. I think it is more likely that he will be a facilitating or intermediary actor in the relations between the parties and that other countries, such as China itself, may have a more direct intervention, without disregarding the always relevant role of the United States as that central geopolitical force. today”, explains Emerson Cervi.
In this program, listen to the analysis of Emerson Cervi, professor at the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of ParanáNo brazil.
GUEST April 12, 2023 – Emmerson Cervi