2023-05-24 10:00:14
The welfare state is doing better, but it risks having a relapse. In 2023, the deficit of the basic mandatory social security schemes should fall further before widening thereafter. Highlighted in a report that the Court of Auditors published on Wednesday 24 May, this unfavorable development is largely attributable to the difficulties encountered by several pension funds. The reform promulgated on April 14 does not seem to meet the financing needs that exist in certain compartments of our pay-as-you-go system.
In 2020, the health crisis had plunged into the abyss the budget of the “Secu”: the balance between expenditure and income was then negative to the tune of almost 40 billion euros – if we take into account the basic schemes and the solidarity fund which pays the minimum old age (FSV).
On an unprecedented scale, this hole has since shrunk, without completely disappearing: in 2023, it could be -8.2 billion euros (compared to -19.6 billion in 2022). Such an improvement results ” mostly “ the mitigation of the costs borne by Medicare in order to combat the Covid-19 epidemic.
But the recovery would not be “only transitory”, according to the magistrates of Rue Cambon, in Paris. From 2024, they write, the imbalance “expected to get worse again”reaching – 13.1 billion in 2026. A deficit “carried by the degradation (…) of the old age branch »which notably includes the general pension scheme, that of agricultural employees and the FSV: for these three, the result would be -4 billion in 2030.
Demographic trend
Another offshoot of this same old age branch finds itself in a situation « critique » : the pension fund for agents employed by local authorities and public hospitals, the balance of which would sink into the red (– 6.5 billion in 2030). A trend that has its source in demography, the number of contributors compared to that of retirees being down.
In the medium term, the April 14 reform does not therefore solve all the problems, even though it aims to generate savings – with the increase in the legal retirement age – while stimulating resources – thanks to , in particular, to an increase in the contribution rate for the general scheme and for that of territorial and hospital staff.
Important clarification: the report is only interested in the basic schemes and does not include the performance of other pension funds which are in good health – for example Agirc-Arrco, the complementary scheme for private sector employees. By reasoning on all the components of the pay-as-you-go system, the return to equilibrium could be effective in 2030.
You have 16.15% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.
#Court #Auditors #warns #deterioration #Social #Security #accounts