2023-08-21 21:35:17
This victory for Volodymyr Zelensky should not materialize before 2024.
It is a decisionhistorical“, according to Volodymyr Zelensky: Denmark and the Netherlands have promised to deliver, between them, a total of 61 American F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, two days after the American green light on the subject. The Dutch Air Force, which also has 28 F-35s, is said to have pledged to donate its 42 F-16s. While the counter-offensive in the south of the country seems to have stalled for several months, these announcements are a victory for the Ukrainian president, who continued his European tour in Greece on Monday.
From the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainian Air Force was greatly weakened. According to a count from the specialized site Oryx, last January, Ukraine – with an already small fleet – had lost 60 fighter planes, and Russia 70. Poland and Slovakia have recorded the delivery, this year, of more about twenty MiG-29 fighters, which the Ukrainians equipped with American anti-radar missiles and other Western “intelligent munitions”. But despite these efforts, Ukraine does not have a strong air force capable of surpassing Russian air defense systems.
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«Today, there is virtually no air war over the Ukrainian battlefield, the two air forces having neutralized each other. Receiving F-16s will be a way for Ukraine to add a third dimension to the conflict, which today is mainly played out on land and at seaexplains Jean-Christophe Noël, retired air force colonel and associate researcher at Ifri’s Center for Security Studies.
Versatile devices
Most Westerners are slow to decide to deliver fighter jets to kyiv. Some analysts believe that air assets will not play a decisive role in the conflict, as both sides have effective anti-aircraft systems. Others argue that sophisticated air assets would allow Ukraine to improve its operational capacity, to counter Moscow’s air defense, to conduct more surveillance and reconnaissance operations, and of course to strike enemy positions. .
The F-16s, nicknamed “fighting falcons”, are not state-of-the-art aircraft, but these so-called “fourth generation” planes have the advantage of being versatile, while being relatively inexpensive. “Considering cost, efficiency and availability, this is one of the most attractive fighter jets on the market.“says Jean-Christophe Noël.
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Could the Danish and Dutch announcements influence the positions of Washington or Paris? Already last January, Frank Saint-John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, told the Financial Times what company “would increase the production of F-16 in order to be able to meet in a very satisfactory way the needs of the countries which would choose to carry out third transfers to contribute to the conflict».
Joe Biden had said he was ready to allow other countries to supply these American-made planes. “If Denmark and the Netherlands have announced that they want to deliver F-16s, it is because they have had Washington’s approval.“recalls Jean-Christophe Noël. “For now, therefore, there is no reason for Washington to decide to deliver F-16s directly to kyiv.“As far as France is concerned, “the volume of our combat fleet means that it would be pointless to deliver Rafales*, for example, because we would simply no longer be able to ensure our air defense, the nuclear alert and our current operations“, he believes. However, Le Figaro revealed last March that France was training “Ukrainian military personnel” Mirage 2000* combat aircraft; Just as the United States provides training for Ukrainian airmen on F-16s.
Training of Ukrainian pilots
Will this political victory for Zelensky translate to the field? “If Ukraine manages to achieve real air superiority, then it will be able to more easily seize the initiative on the ground and target enemy troops and logistics, which would change the configuration of the war in Kiev’s favor.“, he believes.
However, the delivery time of these planes and, above all, the time it will take for Ukrainian pilots to be trained in the handling of F-16s will determine the effectiveness of these announcements. “An experienced pilot will be able to conduct basic missions after about six months. But learning to fully exploit these devices, to master all its resources, and to use it in coordination with other aircraft, will probably take more years.», Underlines the former fighter pilot.
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Denmark and the Netherlands having specified that the delivery would only take place after the training of the Ukrainian pilots, no F-16 will therefore probably be used operationally in Ukraine before 2024. The Ukrainian military will have to be able to coordinate the operations of the Army and the Air, while until now, they have not been able to acquire the habit. “All this in a complicated environment, where the Russian army will certainly seek to target these planes which are less rustic than its own fighter planeswarns Jean-Christophe Noël.
*The Rafale and the Mirage 2000 are manufactured by Groupe Dassault, owner of the «Figaro».
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