China’s Decision to Lift COVID-19 Restrictions Led to Nearly 2 Million Excess Deaths, Study Shows
BEIJING, Aug 25 (Reuters) – China’s sudden decision to dismantle its strict COVID-19 regime earlier this year, which resulted in the virus spreading rapidly among its 1.4 billion residents, may have led to nearly 2 million excess deaths in the following two months, according to a new study conducted by the federally funded Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle.
The study, based on a sample of mortality data published by some universities in China and internet searches, found that an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among people over the age of 30 between December 2022 and January 2023. These deaths were observed in all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.
China’s decision to end the three-year zero-COVID policy, which included mass-testing and stringent and persistent quarantine lockdowns, was made in December last year. This decision led to a massive surge in hospitalizations and deaths, which health experts say were largely unreported by the government.
The study, published on Thursday in JAMA Network Open, also highlighted that the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official Chinese government estimates in January, which claimed that only 60,000 people with COVID-19 had died in hospitals since the abandonment of the zero-COVID policy.
Researchers used statistical analysis to analyze published obituaries and data from searches on Baidu, a popular Chinese internet search engine. They concluded that their findings were important for understanding the impact of the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population on mortality.
China’s National Health Commission has not yet responded to requests for comment on the study. Global health experts had previously called on China to provide more data as reports of rising hospitalizations and deaths started to surface, especially with the emergence of new variants.
China stopped reporting official daily death results at the end of 2022, and according to the World Health Organization, there have been 121,628 COVID deaths in China out of a total global toll of almost 7 million.
In a rare move, one Chinese province briefly published data on its website in July, showing a 70% increase in cremations in the first quarter of this year. However, the data was later taken down.
In February, China’s top leaders declared a “decisive victory” over COVID-19. However, the virus is still circulating in the country. Beijing health officials announced on Thursday that COVID-19 is still the number one infectious disease in the capital. They cited a new Omicron variant, called EG.5 or “Eris,” as the current dominant strain across China.
According to the Global Times, the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention reported that the proportion of the new variant EG.5 increased from 0.6% in April to 71.6% in August, becoming the dominant strain in most provinces in China.
The study’s findings highlight the consequences of lifting COVID-19 restrictions prematurely and serve as a reminder of the importance of ongoing vigilance and adherence to public health measures to prevent the further spread of the virus.
This article was written by Bernard Orr and edited by Lincoln Feast.