Title: Russia Rushes Reinforcements to Southern Ukraine as Ukrainian Counteroffensive Gains Momentum
Subtitle: The 76th Guards Air Assault Division deployed to prevent Ukrainian breakthrough
Date: [Current Date]
In a desperate attempt to thwart a major Ukrainian breakthrough along a critical axis in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Kremlin has deployed reinforcements from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, described as one of Russia’s best divisions. According to Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the division is relatively fresh and most recently went on the attack in the Kreminna sector earlier this year.
The redeployment of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division signifies the growing momentum of the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian army and independent air-assault force have liberated Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia, while the Ukrainian marine corps has successfully ousted Russian troops from Urozhaine in the Mokri Yaly River Valley.
These twin victories have brought Kyiv’s forces several miles closer to their main objectives in southern Ukraine, which include the liberation of Melitopol and Mariupol from Russian occupation. On the other hand, the Russian forces aim to maintain their hold on these cities to safeguard overland supply routes into Russian-occupied Crimea.
A critical factor in determining the outcome of this ongoing conflict will be which side effectively utilizes its reserves. The Ukrainian southern command deployed the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, one of its few in-reserve formations, to achieve the breakthrough around Robotyne. In response, the Kremlin is now deploying its own reserve formation, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division.
The redeployment was first noted by a Ukrainian reserve officer who tweets under the handle @Tatarigami_UA. The officer emphasized that, on paper, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division is part of Russia’s strategic reserves, highlighting the seriousness of this move. Despite being a reserve unit, the division has been on the front lines for much of Russia’s 19-month war on Ukraine.
Previously, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division fought in Kyiv and reportedly participated in the Bucha massacre in the spring of 2022. After retreating from north-central Ukraine, the division redeployed to the east with its tanks and fighting vehicles.
By committing the 76th Guards Air Assault Division to defend against the Ukrainian attack in southern Ukraine, the Kremlin is making a significant strategic move. While it strengthens Russian operational capacities, its failure would critically impair the availability of combat-ready reserves for rapid deployment.
According to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., any future attempts to reinforce Russian defenses in one sector may come at the expense of defenses in another sector. This lack of substantial operational reserves could force the Russian command to make difficult decisions about which sectors of the front to prioritize.
The implication is clear: if the Ukrainians maintain their momentum in the south, they might force the Russians to make a hard choice between holding the south or holding the east, as it would be nearly impossible to do both simultaneously.
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