Scientists from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology have compiled a model for the growth in the number of patients with neurodegenerative diseases
The number of Russians suffering from dementia will double in 2050. This conclusion was made by the staff of the Laboratory for Analysis of Population Health Indicators and Digitalization of Healthcare at MIPT together with their Western colleagues.
As MK was told at the institute, the main prerequisites for the growth of dementia around the world are the aging process of the inhabitants of the planet (as a result of an increase in life expectancy, many more often live to the time of the onset of neurodegenerative diseases), as well as the growth of the Earth’s population and “younger” heart disease. vascular system. As a rule, they are associated with obesity, physical inactivity and bad habits.
An international team of scientists has predicted the global prevalence of dementia from 2019 to 2050.
If in 2019 the number of people with this disease in the whole world amounted to 57.4 million, then by 2050, according to the mathematical model, there will already be 152.8 million patients (from 130 million in the best development scenario to 175.9 million in the worst ).
The study showed that Russia is expected to increase the number of cases by 107%. This is more than the average growth in other countries of Eastern Europe (92% growth is expected there).
As for the Asia-Pacific region and Western Europe, by 2050 there will be the fewest weak-minded people – 53% and 74%, respectively. It depends on the higher income level of citizens in these countries, the higher level of education and the higher level of medicine.
The largest increase in dementia is expected in North Africa and the Middle East (367%), as well as in eastern Africa, sub-Saharan Africa (357%). Here, this indicator will be more influenced by the overall increase in population.
If we break down all citizens who will suffer from dementia by age, then, according to the analysis, by 2050, 0.5% of men and 0.6% of women aged 40-69 years will have dementia symptoms. Among the inhabitants of the planet from 70 to 84 years old, there will be 6.5% and 8.5%, respectively, and among those who will cross the 85-year mark, 23.5% and 30.5%.
Dementia is currently not treatable by any known classical methods, but scientists know ways to prevent it.
The paper notes that all kinds of “brain training”, such as studying (even in old age) and a healthy lifestyle, can delay the onset of dementia.
Newspaper headline:
The epidemic of dementia will take over Russia by 2050