2024-03-18 16:50:51
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Updated 19 hours ago
It was supposed to be a three-day operation, but it went badly wrong. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin won another mandate in the weekend elections, it is worth remembering that the Kremlin-led aggression in Ukraine did not go according to plan. For Russia, even today, the situation on the battlefield is proof that it has failed systematically, claims the American website Newsweek and describes the five biggest mistakes the aggressor made.
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The five biggest mistakes of Russian aggression in Ukraine. | Video: Reuters
“The biggest mistake was starting this war. Everything is wrong: Russian strategy, ideology, decision-making process, education system, etc.,” thinks Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst who lectures at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in the US state of Massachusetts. The Kremlin’s war effort has become costlier, more brutal and less ambitious in two years. Russia is still ravaging the front areas, but has abandoned the goal of achieving total victory.
In February 2022, the Russians wanted to take control of Kiev in a few days, end the Ukrainian leadership and take power. With the help of paratroopers, they tried to capture Hostomel Airport, which would serve as a supply bridge. The troops approaching from the Russian and Belarusian borders were supposed to help conquer the metropolis. But logistics proved beyond Russian strength. The nimble Ukrainians regularly attacked and destroyed a forty-kilometer supply convoy stretching from the north.
“They never provided any valuable supplies to the Russian forces that were massing around Kiev, they never came to their aid,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said of the stranded supply convoy at the time. “This would be difficult even if the Russian military was competent. It has shown itself to be completely incapable of modern ground warfare,” retired Army Colonel Peter Mansoor told the AP.
The Russians also had to suffer the humiliation of their Black Sea Fleet, which did not even fight against a conventional navy. Even the announced landing near Odessa did not take place, on the contrary, the Ukrainians sank the flagship cruiser Moskva. And that was the beginning. They now claim to have sunk at least 25 warships of various sizes and damaged another 15.
The Russian Navy was unable to maintain a blockade of Ukrainian ports, or even to protect its home bases on the occupied Crimea peninsula. Anti-ship missiles, naval Ukrainian drones, Western-supplied cruise missiles were getting through Russian defenses. “We will attack Russian ships until they all follow Moscow or flee to the eastern part of the Black Sea,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, told Newsweek.
The Russians counted on further losses in the second half of 2022, when Ukraine achieved significant victories in the eastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson regions. In a surprise offensive, the Ukrainians broke through the relatively weak Russian defenses near Kharkiv and liberated more than 400 square kilometers of territory. The Kremlin described its withdrawal as a “gesture of goodwill”.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner’s mercenary group, used Russian aggression to rise. His forces were victorious at Soledar and Bachmut in May 2023. At the same time, Prigozhin attacked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for their incompetence. He won the sympathy of many Russians, especially among ultra-nationalists. Encouraged by the support, he decided to go to Moscow.
But he stopped in front of the metropolis and made an agreement with the Kremlin. He crashed his private jet shortly afterwards. American intelligence services indicated that Prigozhin had succumbed to an assassination attempt. However, his rebellion and the failure of Russian forces to stop him in time were interpreted abroad as a blow to Vladimir Putin’s legitimacy as the country’s unfettered ruler. “Putin’s weakness and Prigozhin’s brash criticism leave the Kremlin at its weakest point in decades,” the American think tank The Atlantic Council said at the time.
At the beginning of the invasion, Russia bombed the Ukrainian infrastructure at will with guided missiles. But as the aggression continued, Kiev also honed its long-range strike capabilities through its drone program, exposing holes in Russia’s supposedly advanced air defense umbrella.
The failure of air defense crews has become so common that it has spawned a slogan that spreads across social media every time there is a significant drone or missile attack on Russian cities, critical infrastructure, or military targets: “What is air defense doing?”
“We’re not used to this.” Muscovites remain in shock after more drone attacks. (22/08/2023)
“We are not used to this. We were shocked,” said tenant Igor in the poll. | Video: Reuters