2024-04-16 15:02:14
Image credit: Getty Images
Article information
- Written by Mahmoud Elnagar
- Position, BBC News Arabic
- 16 April 2024, 15:00 GMT
Updated an hour ago
Some analysts describe Iran’s first attack on Israel as “a pro-Iran move”.
According to Israeli military sources, Tehran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday night.
Iran said the attack was in response to the attack on its embassy in Damascus and that it had achieved its goal.
Iran has warned of a strong response to an alleged Israeli airstrike on its embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1.
Although it did not claim Israel was responsible for the attack on the embassy, it is believed to be behind the attack.
Image credit: Atef Safadi / EPA
Image caption Two 300 missiles and missiles were launched into Israel.
Gained and lost
Iran declares attack on Israel successful.
But according to Ali Nouri Zadeh, an Iranian analyst and director of the London-based Center for Arab-Iranian Studies, the attack did nothing for Iran. On the contrary, it has shown the weakness of the Iranian regime. “The reason is that we did not hit any targets inside Israel,” he says.
This has caused cynicism among some people in Iran.
Zadeh believes Iran could have achieved much more if it had continued with what it calls “psychological warfare”.
பட மூலாதாரம், The rubble of a destroyed building lies next to Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April 2024
Caption The April 1 attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus
Dr. Eric Rundsky, a Middle East studies researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, says Israel has failed by declaring a state of heightened alert. He says this has fueled tensions among Israelis, with many Israelis fearing a repeat of such attacks.
Jadeh says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now feels more powerful after the attack.
The attack helped re-establish strong ties with Israel, the US and other Western countries, which had drawn heavy criticism from many quarters before Saturday.
While the Israelis gained some from the attack, they lost some in other ways, an Israeli analyst says.
He believes the attack demonstrated Israel’s failure to recognize power dynamics in the Middle East and its inability to stop Iran from attacking inside its territory.
Image credit: Getty Images
Caption US President Joe Biden expresses his support for Israel.
Again the support of allies
Israeli researcher Eric Rundsky also believes Israel has something to gain from an Iranian attack. He says this could be a turning point politically, as Israel is now regaining support from the West after months of conflict.
He says that after the sudden tension with these countries, relations with Western countries, including the United States, can be strengthened again.
In contrast, Iranian analyst Ali Nouri Zadeh believes that Tehran has lost politically both at home and abroad.
He says it has lost the support of its neighbors and no country is with Iran. He also notes that efforts are being made by some quarters to draw Iran into direct war with the United States.
Both analysts acknowledge the prevailing domestic pressures in both countries.
Rundsky points out that there is great concern within Israel. While there has been no recent progress in freeing the hostages in Gaza, he says internal political problems are also fueling anger inside the country.
Zadeh also believes that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is also facing severe pressure not only from the people but also from key figures under his regime.
“There is pressure from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps after Israel killed seven leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades. They are pushing for revenge.”
Image credit: Getty Images
image captionIran said the attack on its embassy was an attack on Israel.
A serious warning from Iran
Speaking to the BBC Arabic Service, retired Lebanese general Hisham Jaber, a military and strategic expert and director of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies in Beirut, said: ‘The surprising thing about this attack is that it is not a surprise at all.’
He says the two-week-long “psychological war” led to the airstrikes when Israel was “in a state of panic”.
He notes that this has caused psychological and material damage.
Jaber described the move as a “fiery message” sent by Iran to see how deep it could reach into Israel and demonstrate its ability to test the readiness of Israeli air defenses.
He also believes that the attack has helped Iran regain some of its lost political prestige, following a policy of what he might call “strategic patience” recently.
A Lebanese military expert also believes that Iran launched a large number of drones to confuse Israeli air defenses.
He points out that Israel’s Iron Dome alone cannot intercept all missiles, and that US and British forces stationed at bases in the Middle East must help.
If Israel were to retaliate militarily, its missile could strike a major Iranian city. But Jafar says it cannot go further because of Iran’s retaliatory attack.
“Israeli planes can accurately bomb Iran, but they have to fly over Arab countries that Iran has warned about, or take off from its military bases, which the US refuses to allow,” he said.
Image Credit: ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH / EPA
Caption Protests in Tehran after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria
Changing course and restoring confidence
Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, argues that Israel has benefited more from these attacks than Iran.
He explains that Iran’s attacks have not caused significant damage or casualties in Israel, and that the entire West now supports Israel.
He notes that the US is trying to mobilize Western support for Israel in terms of arms, intelligence cooperation and funding.
Gerges says US President Joe Biden is portraying the country as a victim by calling for an emergency summit of G7 nations to rally support for Israel.
And, he says, “Netanyahu will gain politically after temporarily diverting attention from the catastrophic and horrific events in Gaza.”
While these countries have criticized Israel for committing ‘atrocities’ in Gaza for a period of time, he mentions that Israel’s closeness with Western countries, especially US President Joe Biden, will help improve relations with them again.
Image credit: Amir Cohen / Reuters
Caption Israeli anti-missile technology that prevented Iranian missiles from entering Israel
‘Strategic loss for Israel’
But Gerges also talks about the strategic loss for Israel. He notes that it highlights the vulnerability of the country.
He says Iran benefits politically by directly showing its people, allies and enemies, its willingness to oppose Israel.
Gerges believes that the shooting down of several Iranian missiles by the US, Britain, France and Jordan has proved that Israel cannot defend itself without the help of its Western allies.
Israel’s main objective in the recent series of attacks against Iran is to show that Iran is weak and unwilling to face conflict. But, according to him, the attacks on the field have shattered this concept.
He says the region is waiting for a sign of the storm as both countries are actively preparing for the next move.
He also warns that the region is on the brink politically, militarily and economically.
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