2024-04-17 11:27:15
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for the development of the Bulgarian economy for this year, while at the same time betting on higher inflation. This is according to data from the latest Global Economic Survey, entitled “Stable but slow growth: Resilience amid diversity”.
For this year, the IMF expects Bulgaria’s economy to grow by 2.7 percent. This is a lower estimate than the autumn report published in October last year, which predicted growth of 3.2 percent.
In 2023, the economy of our country grew by 1.8 percent.
In its assessment for 2025, the IMF expects our national economy to report growth of 2.9 percent.
In terms of inflation, the Fund expects a rate of 3.4 percent in 2024, following the 3 percent consumer price growth forecast recorded in the October report. For 2025, the Fund expects inflation to slow down to 2.7 percent.
In the spring forecasts of the IMF, it is also indicated that unemployment in our country in 2024 will decrease to 4.3 percent, with expectations for a level of 4.4 percent in the October report. In 2023, the level of the indicator was 4.4 percent. Next year, the indicator will continue to decrease, reaching 4.2 percent, the experts of the Fund expect.
Evaluations of other institutions
Bulgaria’s real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.9 percent in 2024, the European Commission announced in February. Then the EC adjusted upward compared to its autumn forecast the growth expectations of the Bulgarian GDP.
By comparison, the Bulgarian National Bank forecast GDP growth of 2.2 percent for the current year in its March macroeconomic forecast, which was published earlier today, and the Ministry of Finance’s forecast for the adoption of the national budget assumed GDP growth from 3.2 percent.
Regional context
For Europe overall, in its spring report the IMF raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.6 percent from an October estimate of 1.5 percent.
Among the countries of the region, the economy of Romania is expected to grow by 2.8 percent, and that of Greece – by 2.0 percent, reports BTA.
For Croatia, the Fund’s expectations point to GDP growth of 3.0 percent this year, an upward revision from the October analysis, which had predicted growth of 2.7 percent.