The Winter Olympics in China end on the 20th. The United States has called on its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, saying Russia could invade Ukraine by the end of the war. Britain, Estonia, Latvia and Norway have similarly advised their compatriots.
The number of Russian troops concentrated on the Ukrainian border has risen from 1 million to 130,000. Russia has set up more camps than ever before.
Western nations warn, “So it’s only a matter of days.” But Russia is keeping the peace.
If Russia launches a war on Ukraine, with the direct involvement of the United States and Europe, it will surely be the biggest conflict since World War II. Europe’s peace disturbance. Will have a major impact on the world economy.
Will there be any impact on India beyond these?
Of course. There are more than 20,000 Indians living in Ukraine as students and staff. The first task is to ensure their safety. This is the only direct challenge India faces due to the Ukraine problem. But, implicitly many more challenges await India. What are they?
A total of 3 major challenges.
1. Friendship with Russia
About 50% of India’s security equipment imported during 2016-20 came from Russia. 71% of the jets in the Indian Air Force are from Russia or manufactured with Russian assistance. The missile defense technology (S-400 Triumph) that recently arrived in India is also Russian.
The reason for mentioning these here is to realize how dominant Russia is in our country’s security forces!
In addition, Russia is India’s trusted ally in many international affairs. For this relationship, the problem could be caused by the Ukraine problem.
So far, India has not sided with either the US or Russia, saying “the expectation is peace in Ukraine.” But if the Ukraine problem peaks tomorrow, it will have to lean to one side; Otherwise, both sides will have to face dissatisfaction. Well, what if you support Russia on the Ukraine issue?
2. Friction with the United States?
What else? The relationship with the United States is even more complicated. In the context of China’s growing dominance not only in Asia but around the world, the United States is working with India on the Quad organization to counter it.
For India, which is facing a crisis with China over its dominance of neighboring countries, including Sri Lanka and Pakistan, over the border issue, US friendship is more important than ever.
In addition, the United States imposes sanctions on countries that sign arms deals with Russia under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). India was also expected to impose sanctions on the S-400 Triumph deal with Russia.
But it has put it off because of its friendship with India. Experts say the embargo is more likely if India and Russia side with Ukraine.
TSL Explainer on the Importance of the S-400 Triumph
3. Domination of China
If Russia invades Ukraine, the United States and European countries will impose severe sanctions on the country. This, naturally, will push Russia towards China.
Thus, the unification of the two countries, which see the United States as a common enemy, is a setback for both the United States and India.
The Quad system, created in conjunction with Australia, Japan and the United States to control China’s dominance, will also be diluted. The United States, which has focused on China in the Pacific, will again have to focus on Russia in Europe.
Moreover, if India supports the US, it will be as if it has lost the friendship of Russia on the one hand and China on the other.
In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the outcome and consequences will be visible on the world stage, depending on how India moves the three pieces: the US, Russia and China.
Since all three are related to India’s three main issues of national security, trade and foreign policy, India’s action on the Ukraine issue is under scrutiny.
First TSL Explainer on the Russia-Ukraine affair