2024-05-13 17:45:01
Scientists have developed an innovative methodology to estimate high return period floods in different climate change scenarios.
The work is the work of a team of researchers from the Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, attached to the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV), in Spain.
The research has been carried out by Carles Beneyto, José Ángel Aranda and Félix Francés.
The first analyzes using this method predict an increase in extreme flooding in Mediterranean lands.
“The different climate studies predict an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events that, combined with global socioeconomic development, will lead to an increase in flood losses resulting from extreme precipitation events in the coming years,” highlights Félix Francés. This researcher also highlights that “unfortunately, current methodologies only allow these problems to be addressed for higher frequency (and lower magnitude) events, so it was necessary to develop methodologies that reduce the uncertainty in flood estimates associated with a low probability of flooding.” occurrence and catastrophic magnitudes.”
The researchers applied the proposed methodology in the case study of Rambla de la Viuda, located in the province of Castellón, Spain. To do this, they used stochastic climate generators to obtain synthetic series of future precipitation from the corrected climate models and the information obtained from regional studies carried out on them. In fact, the results obtained revealed a clear increase in extreme precipitation events in the next seventy years for all the different climate models analyzed.
“Despite a slight reduction in the annual amount of precipitation, significant increases in maximum temperatures, an intensification of heat waves and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events are observed,” says Carles Beneyto.
In this sense, the importance of the study lies in the ability to provide accurate estimates of future floods in a context of global climate change.
The members of the research team at a point in an area near the Mediterranean coast. (Photo: Polytechnic University of Valencia)
“These findings are fundamental for informed decision-making and effective management of water resources, as they allow vulnerable areas to be identified and resilient infrastructure to be designed. Furthermore, they highlight the need to adopt proactive measures to mitigate the risks associated with extreme flooding in the future, emphasizing the importance of accurate assessments in planning adaptation and response measures,” concludes José Ángel Aranda.
The study is titled “On the Use of Weather Generators for the Estimation of Low-Frequency Floods under a Changing Climate.” And it has been published in the academic journal Water. (Source: Polytechnic University of Valencia)
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