The mathematical model indicates that the former strain will be completely ousted from the population
The mathematical model of the spread in Russia of two strains of coronavirus at once – “Omicron” and “Delta”, was first modeled by scientists from the Joint Institute for High Temperatures (JIHT) of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of General Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
“Delta” and “Omicron” are strains of the same virus – SARS-CoV-2, but cause significantly different forms of the disease in terms of symptoms and severity. For example, the second, despite the fact that, unlike its predecessor, it has a doubled degree of contagiousness (one person can infect 10-12 people in his environment at once), is less pathogenic and often, when the disease occurs, proceeds like a common ARVI.
As Sergey Triger, Chief Researcher of the JIHT RAS, told MK,
scientists have developed a variant of the development of events, based on the available statistical data. According to him, the less contagious Delta strain will be replaced by the more contagious Omicron within 2-3 months. With the advent of a new strain, the previously predicted peak incidence of “Delta” will also drop by 5 times.
Given the high spread rate of Omicron and the presence of many mutations in it, scientists say that people who have previously had Delta can easily become infected with a new strain of coronavirus again. As for the reverse process – the disease “Delta” after “Omicron” – this, according to Professor Triger, is practically impossible.
The fact is that after a powerful wave of infections with the new Omicron strain, the Delta strain simply will not remain, the scientist explains. “It will be almost or completely superseded by the Omicron. Based on the existence of these two strains that cause COVID-19, we predict a three-fold reduction in the duration of the epidemic process.
However, according to the researcher, virologists are already detecting the emergence of a new strain of Omicron – Stealth-Omicron, as well as a hybrid of Omicron and Delta – Deltakron. It will also be possible to apply the developed model to their interaction with the now dominant Omicron: if new strains turn out to be more contagious, they will begin to displace the progenitor.