2024-07-29 15:12:27
Numbers are declining
This is why sales of heat pumps are collapsing
29.07.2024 – 15:51Reading time: 3 min.
The Heating Act should actually lead to more climate-friendly heating in the future. Heat pumps are to play a central role in this – but customers are holding back.
Sales of heat pumps in Germany have collapsed. The federal government’s goals for the heat transition, i.e. the gradual departure from gas and oil heating, are likely to be missed significantly this year – even though the new heating law has been in force since the beginning of the year. With the increasingly slow pace of modernization, politicians are in danger of missing the climate targets in the building sector, said the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH).
The overall market declined sharply in the first half of the year. According to BDH figures, manufacturers sold 43 percent fewer heat generators than in the same period last year, which was, however, characterized by strong demand. Sales of heat pumps were a record year in 2023, with 356,000 devices sold.
Many people ordered a heat pump, partly because gas prices rose sharply due to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Over the course of the year there was high demand, especially for new gas heating systems, the reason being anticipatory effects due to uncertainty about the new building energy law, often referred to as the heating law.
This year, customers are clearly holding back. Sales of gas heaters fell by 42 percent to 223,000. The drop in heat pumps in the first half of the year was even more drastic. 90,000 devices were sold – a drop of 54 percent. The association expects sales of a maximum of 200,000 heat pumps by the end of the year – the federal government had set a target of installing 500,000 heat pumps every year from 2024.
Citizens are unclear about what municipal heating planning entails, which is why people are postponing the modernization of their heating systems, says BDH General Manager Markus Staudt.
The new heating law generally stipulates that from 2024 onwards, every newly installed heating system must be powered by 65 percent renewable energy. However, the regulations initially only apply to new buildings in a new development area. Heating systems that are already working can continue to be operated. You can read more about this here.
The key point for existing buildings is municipal heating planning. This should be available in large cities from mid-2026 and for the remaining municipalities from mid-2028. Homeowners should then have clarity as to whether they should be connected to a district heating network, for example, or whether they should look for their own decentralized solutions for a new heating system – for example a heat pump.
The BDH hopes for positive impulses, for example, through the expansion of state funding. According to the state development bank KfW, from the end of August 2024, owners of rented single-family homes will also be able to apply for state funding to switch to more climate-friendly heating systems. This will then also apply to owners of owner-occupied or rented condominiums in homeowners’ associations.
When switching to a climate-friendly heating system, a maximum of 70 percent of the subsidy is possible. In addition to a basic subsidy, there is a speed bonus and an income bonus. The maximum investment costs eligible for subsidies are 30,000 euros for a single-family home.
The German Heat Pump Association pointed out that the number of applications for KfW heating subsidies has risen significantly since May. The fact that the housing industry will also be eligible for subsidies from August and that payments will start in September means that demand for heat pumps can also be expected to rise.
The BDH recommends significantly intensifying communication with end consumers and providing information on funding opportunities on a broad scale. The German Heat Pump Association also sees this in the same way. Managing Director Martin Sabel said: “People want to move away from fossil gas heating, and heat pumps are then the technology of choice. The industry and politicians can work on providing even better information on the very good funding opportunities.” The positive development of KfW funding shows that these efforts are worthwhile.
Staudt also called for planning security in terms of funding. This year, around 17 billion euros are available from the Climate and Transformation Fund – a special federal fund – for the renovation of buildings and the replacement of heating systems.
A spokeswoman for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) said: “As things stand, we are assuming that it will continue in this way.” But this is subject to reservation – budget discussions in the Bundestag will begin after the summer break.