According to analysts, as a result of the Russian offensive that began in the fall of 2023, Russian tactical successes are gradually being achieved in certain parts of the front, but it is unlikely that the Russians will achieve operationally significant successes:
“Russian forces do not have sufficient manpower and material resources to sustain intensive offensive operations indefinitely, and Russia’s current offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are likely to end in the coming months,” the ISW report said.
Analysts remind that Russian forces have captured Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, and although this will allow them to occupy a more advantageous tactical position, it will not significantly change the operational situation at this stage of the front.
“Russian offensive operations aimed at achieving operationally important goals, such as capturing Chasivayar or pushing Ukrainian forces out of the eastern bank of the Oskyla River, have either stalled or are making too slow and negligible progress,” ISW emphasizes.
At the same time, ISW believes that Russian forces are likely to continue to reduce offensive activity in lower priority sections of the front, rather than doing so evenly along the front line:
“Russian forces may continue the offensive at a much slower pace across Ukrainian territory, hoping that sustained offensive pressure will prevent Ukrainian forces from accumulating the necessary manpower and resources to regain the initiative,” the analysts conclude.
2024-10-04 19:05:24