Technology luminary Elon Musk has recently sparked a lot of interest in the decentralized prediction market Polymarket after the billionaire said that the site could more accurately predict the results of the 2024 US presidential election than traditional polls.
Musk wrote a post about this on the social media platform X, which he currently owns. In recent months, the billionaire has thrown his support more and more behind the United States presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump.
Recently, Musk gave a speech supporting Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Betting on Polymarket
According to Polymarket, at the time of Musk’s post on October 6, Trump was leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about three percentage points.
Elon Musk claims in a social media post that Polymarket is more accurate at forecasting than traditional surveys. Source: Elon Musk
“Trump now leads Kamala in betting markets by 3%. More accurate than polls because real money is involved.”
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market through its users, USD Coin (USDC) able to bet on the outcome of an event.
As recently reported by Cointelegraph, the The US presidential election is the most active event in the history of the site. Some analysts have even described the growing popularity of prediction markets as a public good.
At this point, it is unclear how “accurate” Polymarket will predict the 2024 US presidential election.
Although Musk and some analysts believe so Predict where money plays a rolewhich encourages a more accurate market, it can also be argued that predicting a financial winner is not necessarily an indication of one’s political beliefs.
For example, a person may vote for one candidate even though he or she predicts or even promises that the opposing candidate will win.
Regarding the identity of the creator of Bitcoin (BTC), namely Satoshi Nakamoto, the activity on Polymarket seems to be in the period before the Identity revealed by HBO on October 8 having reached a feverish rise.
Currently the total is almost $400,000, with the deceased American computer scientist Len Sassaman which is at the top by a large margin.