2024-10-14 18:59:00
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The deficit of basic schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV) could reach this amount in 2025, without corrective action by the government.
It’s even worse than expected! While the social security deficit was forecast at 10.5 billion euros this year, then 16 billion in June, it will finally reach 18.5 billion euros, according to the latest report of the Social Security Accounts Committee What Le Figaro was obtained. Worse still, in 2025, “before the intervention of new income and expenditure measures, the deficit of the basic schemes and the Solidarity Fund for the Old Age (FSV) could reach 28.4 billion euros. It would therefore represent 0.9 points of GDP, after 0.6 points in 2024 and 0.4 points in 2023», underlines the document. The sharp worsening of the deficit compared to 2024 (i.e. an increase in the deficit of 9.9 billion euros) would result from an increase in expenditure (+3.8%) significantly stronger than the slower increase in revenue (+2.3%). ).
In 2024 and 2025, as in previous years, the deficit weighs mainly on the sickness and old age branches of the general scheme, and on the National Pension Fund for local authority agents (CNRACL), which manages the territorial pension scheme and hospital officials. In 2025, the CNRACL deficit would reach 4.8 billion euros – before the increase in employer contributions foreseen in the PLFSS, which would provide 2.3 billion euros -, after the 3.4 billion expected for 2024 and the 2.5 billion recorded in 2023. This deficit, which has continued to grow since its appearance in 2018, is of a structural nature: it is linked to the increase in the number of retirements, while the number of new members stagnates or decreases. Without corrective measures, a recent report from ministerial inspections (IGAS, IGF and IGA) warned that the CNRACL deficit could exceed 11 billion euros in 2030.
Evolution of basic pension and FSV balances 2002-2025
Social Security Accounts Committee – October 2024
In 2025, the deficit of all basic old-age schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV) would worsen dramatically, by €4.7 billion, reaching €10.3 billion. As for the deficit in the healthcare sector, it would continue to widen to reach 18.7 billion euros, before the PLFSS measures. Increased spending would therefore continue to outpace economic growth, in other words the capacity of the economy
The French government will finance social security at a constant rate of public contributions.
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