“There are prime ministers who get along quite well with the incumbent president at the same time. It also happens that the prime minister suffers from the incumbent president during his time (and even dreams of abolishing the presidential institution in the country, as we saw recently). Bennett and Lapid won their presidency. “The rule is for them. A president who will benefit this government, not just be a government symbol who participates in ceremonies and gives speeches.”
This conversation between me and a veteran political man, who spent many hours in Herzog’s life, did not take place this week against the background of the impressive presidential visit to Turkey, but much, much earlier. To be more precise, we met at the MKs’ buffet in the Knesset and sat down for a conversation a few days after the Knesset vote that turned “Buji” into “the honor of the president.”
In the first months after Herzog entered the president’s house, he began to implement all of his extensive assets that he had accumulated over the years in countless meetings, speeches and corridor conversations in the most prestigious forums around the world. President Herzog completes for the Bennett-Lapid government the missing part of the complex puzzle. For the incumbent government, building a new diplomatic bridge with Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a classic win-win situation. They are building what the Netanyahu government has deteriorated, they are repairing the damage done by their predecessors.
It is no secret that what mainly led Erdogan, an Islamist president hostile to Israel, to such a dramatic change in his regional perception, is his country’s not-so-brilliant situation and not exactly his sudden transformation into a lover of Israel. Erdogan, who began his presidential career from a grandiose aspiration to turn Turkey into a contemporary Ottoman Empire, went through many painful moves – until he came to the conclusion that his dream could not be realized.
Erdogan, who dreamed of becoming a sultan ruling a flourishing and prosperous empire, actually became an isolated dictator. In the first years of his tenure, Turkey enjoyed impressive growth, but then there was a setback, and today Turkey is in serious economic distress, with the people not forgetting to draw political conclusions. What Erdogan could have afforded in 2010 – when he encouraged the aggressive pro-Palestinian activity that eventually led to the Maui Marmara incident and the consequent collapse of bilateral relations – he can no longer afford in 2022.
Despite the deep stagnation in relations between the two countries, economic cooperation has actually flourished. According to the Association of Chambers of Commerce, the volume of mutual trade has steadily increased and last year amounted to $ 6.7 billion. Now, in the face of warming relations, which this week has already spawned a multi-participant meeting between Israeli and Turkish businessmen in Tel Aviv, $ 10 billion seems like a realistic goal.
The Turkish president, who has gone all the way in the Islamist direction and isolated his country from the West, has come to a dead end, but knew how to keep to himself. He did not crash, but made a careful U-turn and began to look for another political concept. More moderate and westerly. At this point the interest of the Turkish president meets with the constant interest of Israel.
Throughout this decade, during which Erdogan progressed on the path of extremism and distancing himself from the Western world, Israel broke through and reached unprecedented achievements in the political sphere. The small and isolated Zionist neighbor between most of the countries in the region suddenly became an attractive diplomatic destination, and Erdogan began to ask himself: Where am I in the picture? Therefore, in parallel with the thaw in relations with Israel, he also began dialogues with Egypt and even with his hated neighbor Armenia.
The blue carpet
Not only the impressive Israeli achievements in the diplomatic field have led Erdogan to conclude that the time has come to replace a floppy disk, but also the tectonic changes that have taken place in the region in recent years. The fear of Iran and its nuclear program served as a very strong political glue that led to the formation and strengthening of new alliances. The Turkish president surveyed the region and discovered that in these new alliances, Israel had found new members. Some are surprising, such as the Gulf principalities, while his country risks staying on the sidelines.
The country that traditionally occupies a place at the top of the list of important countries of the region, did not intend after the train. Turkey – which maintains its military forces in Syria, which with all its weight affects the regional energy arena, which maintains a military presence in Libya and also in Qatar; Greater Turkey, involved in everything that is happening in the region, has recognized the new-old opportunity.
Herzog-Erdogan meeting (Photo: Anna Bersky)The decision was made at the Presidential Palace in Ankara. First secretly, within the narrowest and closest circle of Erdogan. Leadership respect and a host of other considerations did not allow him to take faster and more visible steps. While the diplomatic level of contacts was low, the overall picture of Israel-Turkey relations looked exactly the same as it did yesterday, with no signs of improvement. But beneath the surface the process began, progressed and this week bore fruit.
The journey that President Herzog made from his first telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart to the glorious reception on the blue carpet (the Turkish version of the red one) in Ankara took several good months, was not simple and included many steps and considerable efforts by quite a few factors.
The process had already begun with Herzog’s inauguration, so he told the Turkish representative who came to the ceremony that he would be happy to talk to him. The two were intended later and at the same meeting the first sills were laid. Then came the relatively conciliatory remarks made by the Turkish president regarding Israel in recent months, the secret visit of Foreign Ministry Director General Alon Ushpiz to Turkey, the arrest of the Oknin couple and their release after the president’s personal intervention (Herzog and Erdogan mentioned their story in private). The glorious face he gave the Israeli president at the leadership palace.
Erdogan, despite his perpetually sullen appearance, went out of his way to host Michal and Yitzhak Herzog according to all the rules of the ceremony, and the Israeli president saw this as a nice tribute.
It was important for Herzog to make it clear that all his steps are being taken with authority, authority and especially in close coordination with the current and alternate prime minister, including the National Security Headquarters. Indeed, the visit was preceded by closed discussions, and the line chosen was to give it a chance. The importance of the visit is actually its existence, as the visit creates an atmosphere for a change of direction and in the bottom line everything will be examined in deeds.
Herzog invested the best of his talents in his important political appearance. This is with a clear understanding that the main purpose of this type of visit and in these circumstances, with all the symbols and rituals involved, is to convey to the Turkish public normalization, tightening relations and most importantly – legitimacy for the restoration of trust and cooperation.
The Israeli president does not make policy decisions or promote practical initiatives, but builds a framework that will serve as a basis for any practical move. So Herzog came in at his best and gave the show as he knows it. Nor did he stand empty-handed, bringing with him from Israel a magnificent facsimile copy that includes a poem by the Ottoman Sultan Suleiman from the National Library’s Islamic Collection.
The Turkish side also played its part in building the Israeli-Turkish framework, for all its glittering Ottoman glory. The snow began to fall just as Herzog’s presidential caravan and entourage entered the grounds of the host’s palace. The white flakes completed the perfect picture of a new page opening: the two presidents, wearing black coats, walked together along the Presidential Honor Guard, made up of soldiers in blue uniforms.
The sounds of “Hope,” which had not been heard there for many years, mingled with the voices of the muezzin. The moving picture was broadcast on Turkish television. The audience watched and absorbed the message. The next day the visit received headlines in most of Turkey’s major newspapers.
Erdogan’s choice to highlight the visit is not self-evident. The Turkish president’s base is not going crazy on Israel, to say the least. The sight of an Israeli flag hoisted in the presidential palace does not slip well down their throats, and Herzog’s entourage noted that he appreciates the gesture of his colleague, whose march is causing him internal political damage.
The gas crisis
The four-way conversation lasted more than the time allotted to her in the original timetable. After all, the two presidents are not missing topics for discussion. Herzog and Erdogan met at a time of dramatic drama in modern history. Russia to Ukraine (with both of which Turkey maintains close relations) and a day before the meeting in Antalya between the foreign ministers of the countries fighting each other.
Speaking of the war in Europe, last night Erdogan spoke with US President Joe Biden, when earlier his foreign minister, Balut Chebushulu, accompanied the talks in Antalya. On Sunday, he will host Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and the next day, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz. This means that the Turkish president is a player at the head of a regional power, and Israel has something to gain from this.
Speaking of the Greek Prime Minister, Herzog’s entourage notes that both the Greeks and the Cypriots, who are not exactly good friends of the Turks, gave the Israeli president the blessing of his visit. However, they are not happy about Erdogan’s strong desire to take an active part in the gas pipeline from Israel to Europe, which is planned to pass through Cyprus and Greece.
During the conversation, the decision to hold a visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Chebushulu to Israel and the Palestinian Authority matured next month. Herzog and Erdogan even addressed this decision in their statements at the end of their meeting. The mention of the expected visit, it turns out, came as a surprise to Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who followed what was happening in Ankara. His office was also quick to clarify that the details of the visit and its dates had not yet been matched. But the tension did not become a real incident.
Herzog acted as a diplomat here as well, and already in the take-off hall, just before boarding the plane that took him to his next destination, to Istanbul, he made sure to smooth the crease when he made it clear that the matter of Chebushulu’s visit had risen low and that he had already settled the matter with Lapid. Now, Herzog has signed, all that remains is for the foreign ministers’ offices to coordinate the date of the visit. I will also give an overview to Bennett, he promised.
The visit, as mentioned, was ceremonial in glory and photogenic to praise, but the real test will be in preventing a deterioration in the violent rhetoric on Erdogan’s part in Israel’s next crisis in Gaza or Jerusalem. The Turkish president is a stumbling block in these matters, and in order to neutralize possible mines in advance, or at least deal with them when they are small and less explosive, a crisis management mechanism has been agreed upon by Alon Ushpiz and Erdogan Ibrahim Kline’s senior adviser. A person who smiles and walks pleasantly.
At the airport the President Diplomat signed the issue. “That’s how it should be in a reformed regime,” he smiled at the cameras and advanced toward the plane. He came to create a frame, not to paint the picture inside. What the picture will look like, at what stage the ambassadors will be returned, the agreements will be signed and relations will be heated on a practical level – this is already in other hands, and the president does not pretend to intervene. He did his thing, the mission was crowned a success. One can begin to think about the next historical event. After all, the entire term is still ahead of him.