On Monday morning, 4 November, Michel Barnier gathered his ministers in a seminar with the aim of presenting, by the end of the year, proposals to be implemented over three years. The members of the government arrived in Matignon before 9am, for a morning of work.
The Prime Minister, who has been concerned since his appointment two months ago with the urgency of preparing the 2025 budget, wants to show that he is planning beyond this deadline. And this, without worrying about the sword of Damocles of voting on a motion of censure in December, when he will probably assume the responsibility of his government to finally pass these dangerous financial laws.
“Five-year vision, three-year action”this is Matignon’s new leitmotif, in reference to 2029, the date set for France’s return to European budget standards, and 2027, the next presidential election.
Lack of unity
After a first seminar in September to prepare his general policy statement, Michel Barnier wants through this second one “collective meeting”then a third in December, leading to “concrete proposals” to answer ” priority of the French » which will be presented in an action plan, according to those around him.
On the menu, on Monday, of the forty ministers, five themes: State-community, work-social security, immigration-integration, overseas and simplification. A lead minister will manage each theme and the aim will be to define it “one or two priority measures” to be implemented, according to Matignon.
Two ministers will have to speak on the current context: starting with the minister delegate for Europe, Benjamin Haddad “European issues”, followed by the Minister of Economy, Antoine Armand, who will report on the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
This lack of unity is found almost daily in the Assembly on budget texts that are poorly defended or even contested by part of the majority. The government has been defeated on numerous occasions on fiscal issues, the latest example being the revision of employers’ contributions rejected on Thursday by Macronists, the right and the National Rally (RN).
“It is not because we have an opinion that we are an adversary”
The objective of the seminar is also to “ensure team spirit and collective spirit”according to reports from government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon. “We will make progress to better decide together and listen to each other before making decisions, despite extremely urgent circumstances”promised the Prime Minister at the end of the meeting
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“It is necessary that, in the group that has formed around Michel Barnier, we try to define what we agree on so that a form of mobilization can be unleashed”recognized on Sunday the leader of the MoDem deputies, Marc Fesneau, in “Political questions” (France Inter, The worldFrance Télévisions), inviting the government to do so “take into account parliamentary debates”for example the perpetuation of the surtax on high incomes voted by the left and the MoDem.
Deputies will resume consideration of the revenue part of the Social Security budget on Monday, resulting in a probable rejection, which would be equivalent to rejecting the entire text.
The expenditure aspect would not be examined, which would spare the government a lost discussion on the postponement of the indexation of pensions to 1 July, which is reviled from all sides.
The deputies will then return to discussing state budget revenues, while around 1,500 amendments remain to be discussed. A refusal is expected, as the majority in the commission does not support the billions of euros of additional revenue voted for by the deputies of the New Popular Front.
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Also in this case, the red light would bring the entire text which would go to the Senate in its original version, before a joint commission so that the two Chambers try to agree on a common version.
At the end of the process, however, the government should not be able to escape a 49.3 for the adoption of its two budget texts, given that the left and the RN have already announced their intention to vote against.