China is staying out of the Ukraine war, stresses Beijing. But in the conflict between Russia and the West, the country is clearly on the side of the Kremlin. Head of state Xi Jinping fears two things in particular.
What is the position of the government of the world’s largest country and second largest economy on the Russian attack on Ukraine? If one follows the official statements of the Chinese government, this question cannot be answered unequivocally – Beijing presents itself as neutral to the outside world.
One thing is clear: the Chinese leadership neither openly supported nor clearly condemned the Russian invasion. In the UN Security Council, China abstained from the corresponding vote. The government of President Xi Jinping expressed its “regret” for Ukraine, which is certainly an important trading partner, and expressed concern for civilian casualties.
At the same time, the country reiterated its criticism of the United States, NATO’s eastward expansion and its understanding of Russian “security concerns.”
Confusion about the “strategic partner”
It was only in February that Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing to mark the opening of the Winter Olympics, to celebrate the security policy alliance with Xi: Xi assured Putin of his support for his efforts to obtain “security guarantees” from NATO. In return, Russia positioned itself clearly on China’s side in the struggle with the US for influence in the Indo-Pacific.
But the invasion of the Ukraine soon put this new bond to the test. Beijing seems to have been surprised by the Russian attack, the bitter Ukrainian resistance and the extent of the international criticism and sanctions policy towards Russia. “You could see the confusion in the first statements,” Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told AFP.
China: “The US is constantly spreading misinformation”
In its own border disputes with neighboring countries, Beijing likes to point out that territorial integrity must be preserved – but in the case of Ukraine this leads to rhetorical contortions: Because there it is the strategic partner Russia that is violating the integrity of its Ukrainian neighbor.
The Chinese government also does not want to be perceived as Putin’s henchman. Beijing angrily rejected a report in the New York Times that Russia had asked China for military help and support in circumventing Western sanctions: “Lately, the United States has been constantly spreading false reports about China,” said the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Zhao Lijian. A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said he had “never heard of” the Russian request for help.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also denied that Russia had asked China for military aid. Russia has enough “own potential” to continue the war in Ukraine.
Just no sanctions
One reason for the Chinese anger at the US report is that the government has no intention of provoking Western trading partners. After a phone call with his Spanish colleague José Manuel Albares, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday, according to Chinese state media reports: “China is not a party to the conflict and would like to be less affected by the sanctions.”
A meeting between the Chinese Communist Party’s chief diplomat, Yang Jiechi, and US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Monday in Rome shows that these could certainly also affect his country. Washington is in “serious concern” because of the Chinese “rapprochement” with Moscow, a senior US official quoted in an interview with journalists from the meeting.
Meeting in Rome: It was an “intensive, seven-hour meeting,” according to US government circles after the meeting. (Source: Jin Mamengni/XinHua/dpa)
Biden spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said Sullivan made it clear to the Chinese side at the meeting “that there will be significant consequences should they provide military or other assistance, which of course violates sanctions or supports the war effort.” Psaki did not want to comment on specific measures.
The Chinese representation therefore emphasized in Rome that it had always been against “using sanctions to solve problems”. Jiechi appealed that the historical problems of the Ukraine issue should be resolved. The aim must be a balanced security architecture in Europe.
“Rock Solid” Friendship
This may also have been aimed at the USA. The United States is portrayed in China as the main cause of the crisis. The friendship with Moscow, on the other hand, is “rock solid”. China had repeatedly criticized NATO’s eastward expansion, which Russia cited as one of the reasons for the invasion. So the Chinese leadership is following the Russian narrative.
In line with Russian terminology, Chinese government officials reject the term “invasion,” preferring to speak of “military operations.” Anti-Western conspiracy myths and reports of alleged neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian army and political leadership also thrive in the Chinese state media.
“In reality, China is on the side of Russia”
“Outwardly (the Chinese government) is neutral, but in reality it is on the side of Russia,” Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, told AFP. Because the worst-case scenario for Beijing would be if sanctions or a Russian military failure led to an uprising and the overthrow of Putin – and possibly a pro-Western government in Moscow.
Tsang said he doubted that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would want to see the war in Ukraine escalate any further. “Instead, he wants Putin to get what he wants without much collateral damage.” He wrote in the British Telegraph: “If Xi Jinping allowed Putin to fail and lose power, wouldn’t that give ideas to his enemies in China or in the Communist Party?”
A humiliation of Putin by the US and the West would undermine Xi Jinping’s own position, Tsang believes. That would probably also be the end of the goal of expanding their own territory by conquering Taiwan.
First Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine had raised international concerns that China might be following Russia’s example in Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi vehemently rejected such parallels: “The Taiwan question is completely different,” he said last week. Taiwan is an “inseparable part of China” and a “purely internal matter”. The Ukraine issue, on the other hand, is a dispute between two countries, Russia and Ukraine.
“Some people” stressed sovereignty on the Ukraine issue and used “blatant double standards” by undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on Taiwan, he said. The source of the tension is the authorities in Taiwan, who are trying to change the status quo and separate the island from China, which has no future.
Protests in Taipei: In democratic Taiwan, there is a clear position on the Ukraine war. (Source: Ann Wang/Reuters)
China regards the free island republic of Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic and has been threatening to conquer it for years. Recently, Beijing had also increased the country’s military budget due to the tensions surrounding Taiwan. The US has committed to Taiwan’s defense capability and is supplying weapons. Previous US administrations have left open whether they would come to the island’s military aid in the event of a Chinese attack – but President Joe Biden said in October the US had an “obligation” to do so.
Ultimately, China is primarily concerned with its own interests and not with Ukraine. Against this background, it remains more than questionable how seriously the efforts to mediate and find a peaceful, diplomatic solution, which have been repeatedly emphasized before an international audience, should really be taken.