Two years after the start of the full-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate struggles to approve aid, and the European Union (EU) has had a hard time getting $50 billion in aid adopted on February 1, 2024, since Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
What are the main factors influencing the decrease in Western aid to Ukraine in recent months?
Interview: Time.news with Dr. Elena Koval, Expert on Geopolitical Trends and International Aid
Time.news Editor: Good day, Dr. Koval. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the evolving dynamics of Western support for Ukraine. Your insights are invaluable, especially as we analyze the recent findings from the Kiel Institute’s report.
Dr. Koval: Thank you for having me! This is indeed a critical moment for Ukraine and international relations in general.
Time.news Editor: The Kiel Institute’s report indicates a decrease in new aid allocations to Ukraine from August 2023 to January 2024 compared to the previous year. What factors do you believe are contributing to this trend?
Dr. Koval: There are several interconnected factors at play. First, domestic politics in both the U.S. and Europe have shifted. The U.S. Senate faces ongoing debates about the allocation of funds, and we know how polarized the political landscape is right now. Additionally, the European Union has struggled to approve a significant aid package, mainly due to Hungary’s objections. These complications signal a waning momentum that could have broader implications.
Time.news Editor: That’s quite concerning. Why do you think the number of donors is decreasing and becoming more concentrated among a select few countries?
Dr. Koval: The concentration of support among a core group of countries often occurs during protracted conflicts. As time goes on, countries that view the situation as more of a burden or fear domestic backlash may pull back. You will notice that key players like the United States, Germany, and Poland remain active, but many others that might have pledged early on are now reassessing their commitments amidst growing economic pressures at home.
Time.news Editor: Insightful! The report also indicates that the EU has had difficulty pushing through an aid package of $50 billion. What implications does that have for Ukraine and the broader European response to the war?
Dr. Koval: The struggle to finalize substantial aid packages reflects a significant shift in the European commitment to Ukraine. If the EU delays or reduces its support, it sends a message of uncertainty that could embolden adversaries and weaken Ukraine’s defensive position. It may also signal to donors in other regions that the West is not fully behind Ukraine, shrinking global support over time.
Time.news Editor: Given these challenges, what strategies do you think Ukraine can adopt to sustain support from Western allies?
Dr. Koval: Ukraine must continue to demonstrate its strategic importance to Western allies. This includes highlighting the ongoing threat posed by Russia and demonstrating progress in military reforms and counteroffensives. Additionally, reinforcing diplomatic ties with countries on the fence and addressing economic ties—especially in sectors like energy—may invigorate interest and investment.
Time.news Editor: looking ahead, do you believe that this decline in aid could be reversed, or are we entering a long-term period of diminished support for Ukraine?
Dr. Koval: That largely depends on the evolution of the conflict. If there are significant developments on the battlefield—either a breakthrough for Ukraine or a shift in Russian tactics—it could revitalize support and urgency among Western nations. Otherwise, I fear we might see a continued plateau or even decline in aid as initial enthusiasm wanes into fatigue. The key is consistent messaging around the implications of losing this engagement.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Koval, for your enlightening perspectives. The situation is undoubtedly complex, and your insights help clarify some of the challenges ahead for Ukraine and its allies.
Dr. Koval: Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this important topic. Let’s hope for a swift and just resolution to the conflict.