After months of war, Israel managed to crush teh Sunni resistance in the Gaza Strip and the Shiite resistance in Lebanon, Yemen and Iran. Now it is the turn of Syria, an unstable country, administered in most of its territory, sometimes only nominally, by a government led from Damascus by an Alawite president, a small branch of Shiism.
After some conquests in the north, the rebels quickly head south, were the capital is located. The most meaningful thing about this lightning offensive is the lack of resistance offered by the army. Perhaps this shows that the regime is going through a prolonged crisis, which will be definitive if it does not change direction with the immediate support of Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.
The Ba’athist ideology, that is, pan-Arab socialism, is today a caricature of what this movement represented in the seventies of the last century. The destruction of Syrian Baathism began before the spring of 2011, although everything has worsened precipitously since that year. And now, the rebel push leaves President Bashar al-Assad in a dramatic situation.
We need to make a digression to underline that those we now call “rebels” until four days ago were Salafi-jihadists of Al-Qaeda and enemies of the West. The United States, Europe and Israel now speak of “rebels” and not of “Salafi-jihadists”, a circumstance which clearly reveals that the powers do not hide their sympathy for this latest rebellion.
The ‘neighbors’ in the Golan war
Some readers may wonder why Israel would be interested in having a Salafist-jihadist association as a neighbor. Well, this group was already close to Israel during the civil war in the Golan Heights last decade, and the jihadists did not fire a single shot at israel. Leaked reports from United Nations Blue Helmets deployed in the Golan record the existence of regular contacts between Israel and jihadists across the border. There is also evidence that the jihadists used Israeli weapons, and several Israeli hospitals even treated wounded jihadists before returning them to Syria.
It is indeed curious that the leader of the Greater Syria Liberation Organization, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, chose this war name established in the Golan (al-Jawlani), in reference to the territory occupied by Israel as 1967, but which has not never attacked Israel, not even when his organization was on Israel’s side. It is therefore not surprising that Tel Aviv prefers jihadists.
Israel will emerge victorious on several fronts, especially because the Salafi-jihadists are sworn enemies of the Shiites and Iran. it does not seem plausible that such a government would allow Syria to continue to serve as a corridor for Iranian weapons traveling to Hezbollah’s Lebanon. Damascus will therefore cease to be part of the Iranian axis and Russian bases in Syria will have to close.
How is israel’s relationship with jihadist groups in Syria likely to evolve in the coming years?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Middle East Expert on the Current Situation in Syria
Time.news Editor (TNE): Thank you for joining us today. Given the recent developments in the Middle East, notably in Syria, can you give our readers a brief overview of the current situation?
Expert (E): Certainly! The conflict in Syria has reached a critical juncture following Israel’s military successes against Sunni resistance in Gaza and shiite elements in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran. Currently,the focus is shifting to syria,which remains an unstable territory largely controlled by the Alawite-led government in Damascus. This regime’s authority is waning, especially as rebel forces push decisively toward the capital.
TNE: It truly seems there’s been minimal resistance from the Syrian army during this rebel offensive. What does this indicate about the current state of Assad’s regime?
E: The lack of resistance suggests that the Assad regime is enduring a prolonged and severe crisis. This situation coudl deteriorate rapidly unless immediate support is rendered from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah.The Ba’athist ideology, which once held sway in the region, has eroded significantly since 2011, and the current state of affairs appears to threaten the regime’s control over Syria.
TNE: You mentioned that entities previously labeled as “Salafi-jihadists” are now referred to as rebels. What does this shift in terminology signal about the geopolitical landscape?
E: This rebranding is quite telling. It highlights a pragmatic approach taken by the West, with the united states, Europe, and Israel recognizing these groups more favorably now that they align against common foes, particularly Iran and Shiite militias. It indicates a calculated shift in alliances where former adversaries are seen as potential allies against Iran’s growing influence.
TNE: Israel’s apparent preference for these jihadist groups raises eyebrows. Why would Israel favor a Salafist-jihadist element as a neighbor?
E: it might seem counterintuitive, but there’s historical context here. During the civil war in the Golan Heights, these jihadist groups did not engage Israel militarily, creating a de facto understanding. There have even been reports of contacts between Israeli forces and these groups, along with documented instances of Israeli medical assistance to injured jihadists. In this light, Israel’s current strategy appears to revolve around maintaining a buffer against Iranian influence while avoiding direct conflict.
TNE: Considering the implications of these dynamics, how do you foresee Israel’s and the West’s involvement affecting Syria’s future?
E: israel is highly likely to emerge from this conflict strengthened.The continuing threat posed by Shiite forces and the Iranian axis will necessitate tighter control over the region. As Israel neutralizes direct threats,it becomes crucial for the Assad regime to sever ties with Iran,which is pivotal for maintaining the balance of power. In the longer term, the fate of Syria may hinge on whether it continues to be a conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah, as Israel will not permit this corridor to thrive undeterred.
TNE: As a closing thought, what practical advice would you give to our readers trying to make sense of these complex geopolitical maneuvers?
E: I would encourage readers to stay informed about the evolving situation in Syria and the wider Middle East. Understanding the historical context and the shifting alliances can provide clarity on current events.it’s also vital to recognize how local conflicts can have cascading effects on international relations, altering the balance of power globally. Engaging with diverse news sources and expert analyses can offer deeper insights into these intricate dynamics.
TNE: Thank you for your time and insights today. This discussion sheds light on a very complex situation that continues to evolve.
E: My pleasure! Thank you for the conversation.