The end of Assad‘s 12-year reign marks a major strategic political defeat for Russia and has plunged the Kremlin into turmoil as it struggles to maintain its military presence in Syria.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlights that Russia’s inability or unwillingness to bolster the Assad regime’s flailing forces, amidst a rapid surge by Syrian opposition advances, will tarnish its image as a reliable and effective security partner globally. This,in turn,will hinder Putin’s efforts to garner worldwide support for his vision of a multipolar world order.
ISW has gathered compelling evidence suggesting that Russia is setting the stage for a withdrawal of its military assets from Syria, with concerns growing about the safety of its military bases in the region.
Even if russia manages to retain some or all of its bases in Syria, it will represent a significant geopolitical setback. Future Russian basing in Syria would become contingent on the Syrian opposition groups,whom the Kremlin has previously labeled as terrorists.
Assad has relinquished his position and fled Syria, confirmed by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Sunday. The ministry declined to disclose his potential whereabouts and stated that Russia is maintaining dialogue with various factions within syria.Russian state media reports claim assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, where Russia has granted them asylum.
Simultaneously occurring,Syrian rebel groups triumphantly seized Damascus on Sunday,declaring the downfall of the Assad regime.
Led by the group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” a lightning offensive against Assad’s forces commenced less than two weeks ago.
Their relentless advance saw them successfully expel Assad’s forces from Aleppo, Hama, and homs within days.
How might Russia’s diminished influence in Syria affect its relationships with other countries in the middle East?
Interview with Dr. Elena Voronova: analyzing the Implications of Assad’s Downfall adn Russia’s Strategic Defeat
Editor (Time.news): Today, we have with us Dr.Elena Voronova, an expert in international relations and Middle Eastern politics, to discuss the recent fall of bashar al-Assad and its implications for Russia and Syria. dr. Voronova,thank you for joining us.
Dr. Voronova: Thank you for having me. The developments in Syria are undeniably pivotal.
Editor: To start, how significant is the end of Assad’s 12-year reign for Russia’s influence in the region?
Dr. Voronova: Assad’s downfall is a critical blow to Russia’s strategic ambitions in the Middle East.For over a decade, the Kremlin has positioned itself as a key ally of the Assad regime, which allowed it to assert its military presence and political influence in Syria. Now,with the Syrian opposition advancing,Russia’s failure to support Assad’s forces effectively reflects poorly on its credibility as a security partner globally.
Editor: The Institute for the Study of War has mentioned that this situation could tarnish Moscow’s image. Can you elaborate on how this could impact Putin’s vision for a multipolar world?
Dr. Voronova: Certainly. Russia’s perceived inability to stabilize the Assad regime amidst heightened opposition advances will undermine its image in international relations. The multipolar world that putin envisions relies heavily on the perception of Russia as a strong, reliable player. Loss of control in Syria could deter other nations from aligning with Moscow, fearing similar instability or lack of support in their own conflicts.
editor: Reports suggest that Russia is preparing for a military withdrawal from Syria.What factors are contributing to this decision?
Dr. Voronova: The security of Russian military bases in Syria is at the forefront of this decision. As opposition gains ground, assurances of safety for Russian assets in the region are dwindling. If Russia withdraws entirely or scales back its military presence, it will further signal a significant geopolitical setback. Future basing decisions will hinge on dynamics involving syrian opposition groups, which Russia has previously classified as terrorists.
editor: Over the weekend, Syrian rebel groups declared triumph in capturing Damascus. How do you view this seismic shift in power?
Dr. Voronova: This is indeed a historic moment. The rapid offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which saw the expulsion of Assad’s forces from critical cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, showcases the swift volatility of power in the region. Their successful advance reflects not only military capability but also significant public opposition to assad’s regime,which had been simmering for years.
Editor: The Russian Foreign ministry confirmed that Assad has fled Syria with his family and reportedly secured asylum in Moscow. What are the implications of this move for both Assad and for Russia?
dr. Voronova: Assad seeking asylum in Russia underscores his dependency on Moscow as a lifeline. For Russia, hosting Assad could be a double-edged sword; while it maintains a degree of influence over the Assad legacy, it also risks alienating opposition forces and the broader discontent within Syrian society. It will be a challenge for the Kremlin to navigate its relationships moving forward.
Editor: Looking ahead, what practical advice can you offer readers who want to understand the ongoing developments in Syria and Russia’s geopolitical posture?
Dr. Voronova: I recommend staying updated through reliable news sources that provide real-time analysis and context. Understanding the complex dynamics at play in Syria, including the positions of various factions and international actors, is essential. Additionally, engaging with academic publications focused on Middle Eastern politics can offer deeper insights into the long-term implications of these events on global security.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Voronova, for your valuable insights into this rapidly unfolding situation. The implications of Assad’s downfall and its effects on Russia will continue to be significant in the coming months.
Dr. Voronova: Thank you for the chance. It’s crucial we continue to monitor these changes as they unfold.