New survey surprises
With these values only a coalition would be possible
Updated 12/10/2024Reading time: 1 Min.
A new survey provides encouraging results for the SPD – and bad news for the Greens.
This survey will please the strategists in the Chancellery: In an opinion trend conducted by the INSA agency for the “Bild” newspaper, the SPD is doing better than it has in more than a year at 17 percent. It has increased again, by one percentage point compared to the previous week.
However, the Union remains by far the strongest force with an unchanged 31.5 percent, followed by the AfD with 19.5 percent (plus one percentage point). The Greens, on the other hand, only recorded 11.5 percent (minus 1.5). Wagenknecht’s BSW comes to 8 percent (plus 0.5). The Left with three and the FDP with 4.5 percent, however, would fail at the five percent hurdle.
Above all, the drop in support for the Greens is another reason to be happy for the SPD. Because the only possible government alliance with these numbers would be a coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD. It would no longer be enough for a black-green alliance between the Union and the Greens. No other party wants to form a coalition with the AfD, which is largely right-wing extremist.
However, Olaf Scholz, currently Chancellor, would not remain in the Chancellery in such a grand coalition, but would instead give way to CDU leader Friedrich Merz.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.