► Why has the Russian army announced that it is refocusing its objectives on the Donbass?
Speculation abounds since the announcement by General Rudskoy, Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, on Friday March 25, a little over a month after the Kremlin launched the war, that Moscow would “to concentrate the bulk of the efforts on the main objective: liberation” of the Donbass mining basin. A declaration which contrasts with the will shown until then by “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine” as a whole and not only in this eastern region where there are two “republics” pro-Russian separatists. Propaganda ? Admission of failure?
→ THE FACTS. War in Ukraine, day 30: counter-offensive on Kherson, the Russian army concentrates on the East
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, does not believe in this refocusing. “The Donbass does not interest them. Their main interest is kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and the south, taking Mariupol, and closing the Sea of Azov. There are gatherings of troops and they are preparing to send more to the front. »
For Michel Goya, former soldier, historian of the war, “We must not confuse a campaign of conquest with a campaign of strikes. If the campaign of conquest is officially (and for the moment) concentrated on the Donbass, the campaign of strikes continues on the whole territory”he said on his Twitter account.
In fact, on Saturday March 26, the city of Lviv, in western Ukraine, hitherto relatively spared from the fighting, suffered two Russian strikes. For the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, it is clear that “the Russian forces continue in vain their efforts to secure their positions in order to attack and take kyiv despite the announcement of the supposed reframing of the priorities of the Russian army”.
► Are the Russians blocked in their objectives?
On the ground, some speak of the bogging down of Russian troops. If they first tried to encircle the capital kyiv, after bombardments and the capture of several towns in the northwest, they were forced to retreat by the Ukrainian army, itself trying to surround thousands of Russian soldiers.
→ REPORT. War in Ukraine: in Voznessensk, the rout of Russian troops around the corner
In Mykolaiv, a city-lock on the road to Odessa that the Russian army has been trying in vain to blow up for weeks, the noose seems to be loosening a little. The front even retreated, with a Ukrainian counter-offensive on Kherson (80 km to the south-east), which the Russian army had claimed to have taken completely.
► What consequences for Moscow?
“If Russia cannot take either kyiv or important strategic cities, they will fail in their ambitious goalssays Rob Lee, researcher in the department of war studies at King’s College London, on his Twitter account. Attrition and resistance made it unlikely that Russia could take Odessa or Kyiv at this stage. »
The capture of Mariupol could be a test for Moscow. The state of Russian casualties to retake the city will determine whether its fall can allow Russia to renew large-scale combat operations as indicators appear to show its losses are significant. On March 25, Moscow acknowledged 1,351 soldiers killed and 3,825 wounded. Ukraine speaks of 15,300, and NATO estimates that from 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers died.
Still according to Rob Lee, “it appears Russia has moved troops from its fourth military base in South Ossetia to bolster its strength in Ukraine and is likely considering moving troops from other regions”. New sign of an ongoing reorganization.