► How does Ukraine hope to guarantee its security in the future?
After three hours of talks, on Tuesday March 29, Ukraine accepted the principle of neutrality in exchange for a “international agreement” guaranteeing its security under the aegis of several countries, indicated the chief Ukrainian negotiator, David Arakhamia. By virtue of this status of neutrality, Ukraine would undertake not to receive on its territory “no foreign military base” and would not join “no military-political alliance”, starting with NATO. No other details have been provided, at this stage, on the duration of this status.
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“We want an international mechanism of security guarantees where the guarantor countries will act in a similar way to Article 5 of NATO and even in a more firm way”, we explain on the Ukrainian side. The latter provides that an attack on one of its members is an attack on all. kyiv cited several guarantor countries: the United States, China, France and the United Kingdom – four members of the UN Security Council -, but also Turkey, Germany, Poland and Israel.
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Military exercises could nevertheless be organized in Ukraine with the agreement of these guarantors. Kyiv also demands that the international agreement in no way prohibit Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, and that the guarantors undertake to contribute to this process.
► What status for Donbass and Crimea?
In order for these guarantees to take effect as soon as possible, Crimea and the territories of Donbass, under the control of pro-Russian separatists, would be “temporarily excluded” of the agreement, said David Arakhamia. The Ukrainian negotiator estimated that, after these talks, the conditions were “sufficient” for a summit meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. A proposal refused so far by Moscow.
“This is the most significant progress since the start of negotiations”welcomed Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu. “It will be up to the foreign ministers of the two countries to meet to resolve the most difficult issues”he added.
► Why does Russia seem to be changing its position?
The difficulties of the Russian army faced with the unexpected resistance of the Ukrainian forces, combined with the scale of the economic and financial sanctions taken by the West, largely explain the new posture of the Kremlin. At the end of last week, Moscow had already announced that it wanted to refocus its military action on the Russian-speaking separatist territories of Donbass, on the border between the two countries. On Tuesday March 29, Russia gave a new pledge of its goodwill by promising to reduce “radically” its military activity in the kyiv and Chernihiv region.
→ ANALYSIS. In Ukraine, the Russian invasion sinks into a war of attrition
Beyond this diplomatic justification, this announcement comes to sanction the reality observed on the ground for several days. Harassed by Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, Russian forces had to loosen their grip around the capital, kyiv. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian authorities even announced that they had regained control of Irpin, a town located 20 km northwest of the capital, hard hit by the fighting.
► Does this progress have effects on the front, in Ukraine?
Caution remains in order. While Washington claims to see no signs of “real serious” on the part of Russia in the discussions, no ceasefire has yet been formally announced and Russian forces continue to strike on Ukrainian territory. At least seven people were killed and 22 others injured on Tuesday following the bombardment which targeted a building of the regional administration of Mykolaiv, in the south of Ukraine.
→ REPORT. War in Ukraine: on the southern front, “we live like on a barrel of powder”
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of committing “a crime against humanity” in Mariupol, a strategic port in the Sea of Azov (southeast) besieged for days by Russian forces. kyiv mentions the figure of “5,000 dead” under the Russian bombs, but no reliable assessment is available. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Vladimir Putin on the phone on Tuesday, ” to secure ” a humanitarian operation, if possible “in the next few days”, in Mariupol, said the Elysee. According to the Ukrainian authorities, around 160,000 people are still stuck there..
A sign of the extreme caution of Westerners, they are maintaining strong pressure on the Kremlin. While the negotiations were taking place in Istanbul, several European capitals announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats accused of espionage: 21 from Belgium, 17 from the Netherlands and 4 from Ireland.
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More than a month of war
February 24. Russia attacks Ukraine, the European Union (EU) retaliates with heavy economic sanctions.
February 27. Vladimir Putin brandishes the nuclear threat. The EU funds the shipment of arms to Ukraine.
February 28. Ukraine applies for EU membership.
2 mars. The UN adopts a resolution against the war in Ukraine and demands the withdrawal of Russian forces.
11 mars. EU rules out rapid integration of Ukraine.
13 mars. The Russian army bombs a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border.
16 mars. Russia is expelled from the Council of Europe and is accused of “war crimes”.
20 mars. The bar of 10 million Ukrainians who had to flee the war has been reached.
29 mars. Ukraine declares that it will agree to be neutral if it obtains a “international agreement” to ensure its safety.