WASHINGTON – July 3, 2024
Hurricane erick’s Rapid Rise
Hurricane Erick is rapidly intensifying as it approaches the southern coast of the Mexican Pacific.The storm’s rapid development raises concerns and echoes past destructive events.
- Hurricane Erick intensified dramatically in a short period, doubling its intensity in under a day.
- The storm is approaching the southern coast of the Mexican Pacific, a region that is vulnerable to hurricanes.
- Scientists are concerned about the increasing frequency of rapid intensification in a warmer climate.
The menacing Hurricane Erick is gaining strength at an alarming rate,a stark reminder of the volatile nature of weather patterns. The storm is heading toward the southern coast of the mexican Pacific. Erick’s rapid intensification, marked by a doubling of its intensity within a day, is becoming increasingly common as climate change impacts weather systems.
Last year, there were 34 instances of rapid intensification, defined as winds increasing by at least 56 kilometers per hour (35 mph) in 24 hours. this is roughly twice the normal amount, according to the National Hurricane Center. This rapid strengthening poses significant challenges for accurate forecasting.
Rapid Intensification Defined: A hurricane undergoes rapid intensification when its maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. This can dramatically increase the storm’s destructive potential.
Hurricane Erick gained 80 km/h (50 mph) of wind speed in just 18 hours. This rate of intensification is what makes it a concern as it nears the Mexican coast. It’s the fifth named storm of the Eastern Pacific season, occurring a month into the season.
Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, noted the unusual timing.He also suggested that Erick could become the most intense cyclone to reach that part of Mexico at this point in the season.
The average date for the fifth named storm in the Eastern Pacific Basin is around July 23, according to the Hurricane Center. The Eastern pacific hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to November 30, sees an average of 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes. Of those, four reach Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 177 km/h (110 mph). The Eastern Pacific usually experiences more storms annually than the Atlantic, even though Atlantic storms tend to cause more damage due to impacting more populated areas.
Storm Frequency: While the Eastern Pacific sees more storms on average, the Atlantic hurricanes often cause more damage due to their paths impacting densely populated areas along the US East Coast and Gulf Coast.
Given Erick’s trajectory towards Acapulco and its rapid intensification, it brings to mind the devastating passage of Otis in 2023. That hurricane struck the same tourist port in southern Mexico.However, Erick is an early-season storm. Otis struck in October, forming later in the year.
Otis was strengthened by stirring deeper, warmer waters because it was later in the year. The early season arrival of Erick means that the waters it is agitating are colder. Even so, according to Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane scientist at MIT, the surface water temperatures are warm enough to support intensification.
kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, noted that Erick has ideal conditions for strengthening. She stated that the atmosphere around the storm is extremely wet and dry air, a factor that typically halts intensification, is absent. She added that the hurricane’s eye is forming appropriately, indicating that it is indeed in an ideal state to strengthen.
Climate change and Hurricanes: Scientists are actively researching the link between climate change and hurricane intensity. Warmer ocean temperatures and changes in atmospheric conditions can contribute to more frequent and intense storms.
Corbosiero noted that studies link climate change to more rapid intensification events, and also slower storm movement. However, she noted that further research is needed after a storm makes landfall to determine the connection between global warming and any specific storm, like erick.
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Forecasting and Preparedness: Facing the Challenge of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes
the rapid intensification of Hurricane Erick highlights critical challenges for the science of hurricane forecasting and the preparedness strategies of vulnerable communities. As underscored in the initial reporting, the ability of a hurricane to dramatically increase in power within a very short time frame-as Erick did-poses significant hurdles for meteorologists seeking to provide timely and accurate warnings.Furthermore, regions like southern Mexico, facing the storm’s predicted path, must proactively take measures to mitigate potential devastation.
Forecasting rapid intensification accurately requires a deep understanding of a complex interplay of atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Small shifts in variables like sea surface temperature, wind shear, and the presence of dry air can critically impact a storm’s growth. Advanced modeling techniques and data from sources such as satellite imagery and hurricane hunter aircraft are essential tools, providing scientists the data they need to anticipate the likely path and strength of approaching systems. However, these models are only as effective as the data they ingest and the real world factors at play. Consequently, rapid intensification periods often generate ample forecasting inaccuracy.
Despite advancements, accurately predicting rapid intensification remains a challenging task. The unpredictable nature of rapid intensification is a significant threat, making timely evacuation decisions difficult for officials and residents. The short window to prepare for a more powerful storm also stresses emergency response capabilities.
For regions at risk, such as the southern coast of Mexico, preparedness is paramount.Extensive hurricane preparedness involves several key strategies. This includes proactive measures at the individual and community levels. Communities should assess vulnerabilities, prepare evacuation plans, and establish interaction networks for disseminating crucial information.In addition, ensuring the availability of sufficient resources can mean the difference between survival and devastation.
- Know Your Risk: Understand your vulnerability to storm surge,high winds,and flooding.
- Develop an Evacuation Plan: Identify evacuation routes and shelter options.
- Build an Emergency Kit: Stock up on essential supplies like food, water, first aid, and medications.
- Stay Informed: Monitor official alerts, and warnings from reliable sources.
- Secure Your Property: Reinforce windows and doors, and clear your yard of potential projectiles.
The intensity of Erick also offers important context for the rest of the 2025 hurricane season. Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted that Erick would become a hurricane by Wednesday, and approach the coast of southern Mexico that night [[2]]. Early-season storms, and increasingly volatile weather patterns, may become more frequent.
Examining the early formation of Hurricane Erick offers a glimpse into the dynamic evolution of the hurricane season. Reports published on June 18, 2025, show that erick formed near southern mexico and was expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday [[1]]. In perspective, the average date for the fifth named storm in the Eastern Pacific Basin is around July 23 [[3]].
The speed in which a storm strengthens is as unsettling as it is an accurate portent for the season. Communities at risk should practice their hurricane plans early, and often, and stay vigilant as the season progresses. moreover, it’s critically important to highlight the critical need for resources and support for impacted areas as they cope with disaster.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between a hurricane and a tropical storm?
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour). Tropical storms and hurricanes are both cyclonic weather systems, but hurricanes are substantially more powerful.
