ISLAMABAD,2025-06-19
Nine months ago,the streets of Islamabad were a battleground,with protesters clashing with police. Now, those same streets are adorned with posters celebrating the army’s triumph, a stark illustration of the military’s surging power in Pakistan.
The army’s influence in Pakistan is on the rise following a recent conflict with India, raising questions about civilian control.
- The Pakistan military is enjoying a surge in popularity after the recent conflict with india.
- Defense spending has increased considerably, while civilian spending has been cut.
- The army chief has risen in prominence, including an official visit to the United States.
What has caused this shift in Pakistan? The military’s claim of victory over India in a recent,brief conflict has ignited a wave of nationalism,unifying Pakistanis and bolstering support for the armed forces.
A Fast Victory, a Swift Rise
The shift from public condemnation to celebration began with last month’s conflict with India. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets. This victory sparked a wave of nationalist fervor.
The army’s success has had immediate impacts.Defense spending increased over 20% in the latest budget, while overall spending decreased. Field Marshal Syed Asim munir, the army chief, has become only the second officer in Pakistan’s history to reach the five-star rank. He is currently on an official visit to the United States.
Did you know?-The rank of Field Marshal is the highest rank in the Pakistan Army. It is largely ceremonial and is conferred in times of war or exceptional achievement. Only seven Pakistani officers have ever been promoted to the rank.
“Indian commentators were arguing … that it was a really excellent time to attack as the Pakistan army was so unpopular,” says Gul Bukhari,a Pakistani political commentator. “But when a husband and wife are at one another’s throats and they get attacked from outside, they will come together.”
The Military’s Message
A poster of Field Marshal Munir, declaring, “we’re ready. Don’t test our resolve,” dominates a public park in Rawalpindi.The message, while directed at India, also resonates with Tehreek-e-Insaaf, the party of jailed former premier Imran Khan.
Khan,who blames the army for his ouster in April 2022,is accused of orchestrating riots in May 2023. He also claims the army rigged the 2024 general election. As Pakistan’s independence, the military has directly ruled for 33 years and wielded meaningful influence the rest of the time.
reader question:-Given the history of military rule in Pakistan, what are the long-term implications of the army’s increasing influence on the country’s democratic institutions and civilian government?
Targeting khan and his supporters led to a public backlash and demands for reform. Though, Shuja Nawaz, a Distinguished Fellow of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, notes that “in both India and Pakistan, in times of war, the jingoistic urge takes over. The media becomes captive to whatever message they’re getting from the authorities, and they magnify it and feed it back into a kind of vicious loop.”
A Deeply Entrenched position
The army’s influence stems from the colonial era, when Punjabi Muslims formed the British Indian army’s backbone. In 1947, the army became Pakistan’s strongest institution, dominating civilian leaders.
The military’s influence in government has become an open secret, and it controls much of the country’s wealth. Mr. Nawaz says, “The military … has crowded out the private sector.It has taken over the national highways, it has taken over transportation. Those are very visible signs of the military’s footprint.”
Local political analyst Hamid Mir argues that the army’s current popularity stems from its performance during the conflict with India, “When they were doing their real job, the people appreciated them. this is a golden possibility for them. They should stop interfering in politics.”
However, many analysts see this as wishful thinking. Fahd Husain, a veteran journalist and former government spokesperson, states that Khan is “certainly a little less relevant to the way things are shaping up” post-conflict. “His main opponent [the military establishment] is much more popular, much more powerful. That shrinks the options that he has.”
The Military’s Economic Grip
The military’s augmented influence extends beyond politics and into the economy. As noted, the army already controls a significant portion of Pakistan’s finances. This financial power further entrenches its position.
One reason for the military’s influence is its control of many businesses. These range from real estate to banking, generating billions of dollars annually. This economic empire allows it to operate wiht a degree of autonomy from civilian oversight.
This economic dominance is not new, originating in the post-independence years. the military’s involvement in commercial ventures has grown over several decades. It further accelerated during periods of military rule. This control offers significant resources and reduces financial pressure from the government.
The increased defense spending, as highlighted, also impacts the economy. According to the Pakistan Institute of Progress Economics, a sudden surge in military spending can often negatively affect other critical sectors. These sectors could include education, healthcare, and infrastructure.The recent budget cuts in civilian spending provide little doubt about where national priorities lie.
Expert Note: “The military’s economic power is a crucial component of its overall influence,” says Dr. Aisha Khan, an economist specializing in Pakistani affairs.”It allows them to maintain influence irrespective of any other political outcome.”
Critics argue the military’s economic activities stifle private sector growth and competition.The army’s businesses often recieve preferential treatment and enjoy monopolies. This situation can disadvantage other businesses and constricts overall economic progress, the opposite of the stated goal of “stability” that the military touts.
The army’s economic control also has implications for openness and accountability. Military-run businesses tend to be less subject to public scrutiny compared to private firms.this lack of oversight can lead to corruption and mismanagement, further damaging the economy.
Khan’s Diminishing Options and the Political Trajectory
The political dynamics shift post-conflict, as veteran journalist Fahd Husain implies. The military’s enhanced reputation and power diminish former premier Imran Khan’s abilities. The army’s actions, including claims of vote rigging, continue to weigh heavily on Khan.
Following his ouster and subsequent legal troubles,Khan’s space to maneuver has steadily narrowed. He faces accusations of orchestrating the May 2023 riots and rigging the 2024 general election, further diminishing his influence. These claims, combined with the military’s rising popularity, present formidable obstacles.
The army’s sway extends to the media, which helps shape public opinion.According to a 2024 report by Reporters Without Borders, Pakistan’s press freedom ranking plummeted. This environment restricts self-reliant reporting, effectively amplifying the military’s narrative and silencing dissent.
However, the situation is not entirely static. Even with a dominant military and less relevant opposition, factors could change. Public sentiment can be fickle. Also, economic hardship or other external factors can impact support for the establishment.
Is imran Khan still a relevant player in Pakistani politics? With the military’s rising prominence, the influence of Imran Khan has considerably decreased as is supported by the actions of his political enemies. His options are now fewer. The military will most likely be the dominant power broker for the foreseeable future.
What is the military’s impact on the economy? the military’s economic control can create monopolies,stifle private sector growth and possibly lead to corruption. The army’s increasing economic influence consolidates its power base.
What’s Next?
Given the current trends, the long-term outlook for Pakistan’s political landscape leans towards continued military influence. This influence will involve the military’s economic power,political maneuvering,and control over crucial national resources. However, public sentiment, economic issues, and diplomatic outcomes will all play a role.
Here are a few scenarios to watch:
- Continued military dominance: The military maintains its grip on power, further consolidating its economic and political assets. This could result in limited civilian rule and reduced freedoms.
- Economic Challenges: Economic instability could lead to public dissatisfaction.This dissatisfaction could, in turn, challenge the military’s position.
- Restrained civilian influence: A compromise could emerge, with some concessions to civilian rule. This is less likely when India is always a threat.
The future of Pakistan remains uncertain. The balance of power will likely shift,impacting the nation in many ways. For now, the military’s ascendancy appears firmly entrenched, shaping Pakistan’s trajectory.
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