Thursday, demonstrating an explosive offense with home runs from Kyle Stowers and Agustín Ramírez. The Diamondbacks, simultaneously occurring, took two of three games from the Chicago White Sox, though they stumbled in their Wednesday finale with a 7-3 loss.
Pitching Showdown: Pérez vs. kelly
Friday’s game will feature a compelling pitching matchup:
RHP Eury Pérez (Marlins)
Eury Pérez (0-2, 6.17 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season. He has pitched 11 2/3 innings, allowing 12 hits and seven walks while striking out 11 batters. In his most recent outing, Pérez suffered a loss, yielding three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves. His road statistics this season show a 0-1 record with a 6.43 ERA across seven innings.Pérez has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career.
RHP Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
Veteran Merrill Kelly (7-3, 3.39 ERA) takes the mound for his 17th start. Thru 93 innings, Kelly boasts a 1.05 WHIP, 2.4 walks per nine innings, and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. His last start was a win against the Colorado Rockies, where he allowed two earned runs over six innings. Kelly’s current season home statistics reflect a 3-2 record with a 3.09 ERA across 46 2/3 innings, complemented by an 8.9 K/9 rate. He faced the Marlins on April 15, earning a road win after allowing just one earned run over six innings. Over his career, Kelly holds a 1-2 record against Miami with a 5.52 ERA in five starts.
Understanding the Odds
BetMGM Sportsbook has set the marlins Diamondbacks odds as follows (lines last updated at 4 p.m.ET):
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +150 | Diamondbacks -185
- Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-130) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (Over: -102 | Under: -118)
Expert MLB picks and Predictions
Despite the Diamondbacks being favored, an in-depth look at recent trends and pitching matchups informs our top recommendations for Marlins Diamondbacks predictions.
Moneyline: Pass
While Arizona is predicted to win this game with a final score of Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 4, the current moneyline offers limited value.The Marlins have a 1-2 record in Pérez’s starts, while the Diamondbacks have secured victories in three of Kelly’s last four outings. However, the Diamondbacks at -185 appear to be overvalued, making the moneyline a strategic pass.
Run Line: Bet Marlins +1.5 (-130)
The Miami Marlins have proven to be a reliable bet on the run line, covering the +1.5 spread in 16 of their last 21 games. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have won by multiple runs in only four of Kelly’s 16 starts this season. While Arizona has recently performed well on the run line, winning five of their last seven games by two or more runs, Miami’s consistent performance over a larger sample size makes Marlins +1.5 (-130) a compelling wager. This pick is supported by the Marlins’ proven ability to keep games close, even in defeat. Read more on MLB odds trends.
Over/Under: Bet Over 8.5 (-102)
Offensive trends suggest a higher-scoring affair is likely. The Marlins have scored four or more runs in five of their last six games, including a combined 20 runs in their previous two matchups. The Diamondbacks have also shown an ability to plate runs,scoring five or more in four of their last seven games,with four of those games hitting the Over.
Eury Pérez has allowed three or more earned runs in two of his three starts this season. While Merrill Kelly has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings, he will face a Marlins lineup that has demonstrated significant recent offensive power. these factors collectively point towards the Over 8.5 (-102) as the stronger play. for additional insights on baseball picks, consult expert analysis.
