MLB Draft Risers: Prospects Poised to Climb Rankings Before July 13
The Major League Baseball amateur draft is often a game of timing. A standout performance at the right moment can dramatically alter a prospect’s trajectory. Take Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood, for example. His remarkable 19-strikeout no-hitter against Murray State on June 16 catapulted him into the national spotlight. While this feat certainly boosted his profile, one analyst noted that Wood was already well-regarded within the industry, ranked 20th in the class prior to the dominant outing, with potential for a rise contingent on his shoulder health. This phenomenon – a surge fueled by opportune timing – sets the stage for a look at prospects who could go earlier than expected when the draft begins on July 13.
Four Prospects Climbing the Draft Boards
Below are four players identified as potential risers, poised to exceed their initial projections.
1. Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
Tennessee’s Andrew Fischer has been generating significant buzz after an impressive season that put him in consideration for a top-30 ranking. The multi-time transfer – having previously played at Duke and Ole Miss – showcased exceptional offensive prowess, hitting .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs and drawing more walks than strikeouts. Unlike some players whose statistics are inflated by early-season success against weaker competition, Fischer continued to excel throughout the year, posting a 1.214 OPS and launching 11 home runs in 30 games against Southeastern Conference (SEC) opponents.
Despite his impressive numbers, the analyst opted against ranking Fischer due to a general skepticism towards collegiate first basemen, citing the high offensive bar at the position. However, Fischer’s performance against SEC competition and his well-rounded advanced metrics suggest he could be selected earlier than anticipated, potentially drawing comparisons to Billy Amick, a bat-first Volunteers corner infielder drafted 60th overall last year.
2. Charles Davalan, OF, Arkansas
Arkansas outfielder Charles Davalan narrowly missed a spot in the top 30, but his strong performance this season – a .346/.433/.561 slash line with 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 65 games – suggests he could sneak into the back end of the first round. The primary question mark surrounding Davalan’s draft stock is his likely position. If teams don’t view him as a viable center fielder, his power numbers may not be sufficient to justify a high pick.
However, Davalan’s exceptional contact skills – he walked more than he struck out during the season – and his ability to perform in a competitive SEC environment could sway teams. In a draft considered light on quality collegiate bats, one analyst believes a team could be drawn to Davalan as an SEC-vetted hitter with a clearly plus skill.
3. Josh Hammond, SS/RHP, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Josh Hammond of Wesleyan Christian High School (NC) also just missed the cut for a top-30 ranking but possesses the potential to rise into that territory. The draft’s landscape often reveals more similarly graded players than available spots in the top 30, creating opportunities for players like Hammond. While listed as a two-way player, most expect Hammond to focus on third base professionally.
He boasts plus raw strength and a strong arm, though concerns exist regarding his overall approach at the plate. As a Wake Forest commit, Hammond will likely require a relatively early selection to forgo his collegiate commitment and sign a professional contract.
4. Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Newnan High School (GA) shortstop Dax Kilby is a lanky, left-handed hitter with a promising feel for contact and the strike zone. Scouts, however, doubt his ability to remain at shortstop long-term, suggesting a potential move to another infield position. Despite this positional uncertainty, a club selecting in the compensatory round could be attracted to Kilby’s projectable frame and envision him developing into an above-average hitter. In that scenario, he could be drafted high enough to avoid ever stepping foot on the Clemson campus, where he was previously committed to play.
The Ripple Effect: How Player “Roles” Influence Draft Day
beyond individual talent, the concept of “role” is a pivotal factor in draft evaluations. While metrics and performance are paramount, how a prospect fits into a team’s overall strategy, both offensively and defensively, substantially impacts his draft position. Understanding this concept can provide added context to the movement of players such as Fischer, Davalan, Hammond, and Kilby as the draft approaches.
Defining the “Role”
A player’s role encompasses several aspects:
- Positional Versatility: can a player play multiple positions? This adds value, allowing a team to adapt to injuries and matchups.
- Offensive Profile: Is he a power hitter, a contact hitter, or a high-on-base threat? Some teams prioritize specific offensive skill sets.
- Defensive Ability: Is the player a solid defender, or do his tools suggest he will need meaningful work to become a viable defensive asset?
- Team Needs: Does the team have a glaring need at the player’s primary position? This can elevate a less-touted prospect.
- Projected Timeline: How soon is the player expected to contribute at the major league level?
Specifically with players like Davalan and Kilby,the question of role becomes vital. If a team doesn’t view Davalan as a centre fielder, his offensive value is likely diminished. Similarly, scouts questioning Kilby’s ability to stick at shortstop will surely impact his draft slot, and in a less crowded compensatory round, one can expect a great many more teams to bid on him.Assessing the role a prospect is envisioned to play-and how that aligns with organizational needs-is crucial.
The Impact on Draft Strategy and MLB Player Ranking
Teams often draft based on a hierarchy of needs or best available talent, or a combination of the two, and the role a player is projected to assume influences both approaches.A team lacking shortstop depth might reach for a player like Kilby earlier than anticipated, even if other higher-ranked players are still available. On the other hand, a team might not draft a first baseman like Fischer early, instead turning toward infielders with more positional versatility.
Your favorite team’s scouting and player growth teams do a deep dive into a prospect’s potential role. They analyse how a player fits into their long-term plans and this directly affects their draft board.
The changing landscape of baseball analytics further complicates role assessments. While customary metrics like batting average remain relevant, new data points, such as exit velocity, launch angle, and defensive metrics, provide a much more detailed picture. This heightened level of analysis allows teams to refine their understanding of a player’s role and identify hidden value from underrated players like Termarr Johnson [[3]].
Practical Tips: Adapting to the Role Paradigm
- Research Team Needs: Identify which positions are weak on each MLB team. This can highlight potential risers for fantasy drafts.
- Don’t Overlook Versatility: Players who can play multiple positions hold greater value.
- Analyze Advanced Metrics: Pay attention to data beyond traditional stats (e.g., wOBA, defensive runs saved).
- Consider Projectable Upside: Some players might not fit a clear role now but have the potential to develop into valuable assets.
A player’s role isn’t static; it evolves as they progress. Keep in mind how an institution might aim to develop and utilize a prospect’s skill set.
FAQs
Q: How does “role” affect a player’s trade value?
A: A player’s role significantly impacts his trade value. A versatile player who can fill multiple positions will usually command more return. A player who precisely fulfills a team’s strategic need will also be highly coveted, especially when those strategic needs are at premier positions.
Q: Why is positional versatility so valuable in today’s game?
A: Positional versatility is valuable due to the prevalence of injuries and strategic matchups. Also, teams are able to provide opportunities for players, sometimes at the expense of the ‘traditional’ starters. Teams are looking to build a team of players who can play multiple positions above all other characteristics.
Q: How can fantasy baseball managers use “role” to their advantage?
A: Managers should focus on drafting players who are likely to earn consistent playing time. Analyzing team needs and player versatility can definitely help make more informed draft decisions. Players who fill a clear role are often given opportunities to prove themselves sooner than those who don’t.
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