The New Normal: As Extreme Weather Escalates, Are We Prepared for What’s Next?
As devastating floods, wildfires, and heat waves become increasingly frequent and intense, a growing chorus of scientists and disaster experts warn that society is dangerously unprepared for the realities of a rapidly changing climate.
Recent disasters – from the horrific flash floods in Texas that claimed over 100 lives this month, to the unprecedented heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada before 2021, and the drought-fueled wildfires that ravaged Hawaii – are stark reminders that extreme weather is no longer a future threat, but a present-day reality. These events are not isolated incidents, but rather symptoms of a larger trend: climate change is fundamentally altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the globe.
A Shifting Baseline of Risk
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 10-year summer average of the climate extreme index – which tracks hurricanes, heavy rain, droughts, and temperature extremes – is 58% higher than it was in the 1980s. This dramatic increase underscores a critical point, as explained by a Princeton University climate scientist: “What happens with climate change is that what used to be extreme becomes average, typical, and what used to never occur in a human lifetime or maybe even in a thousand years becomes the new extreme.”
This means we are beginning to experience events that were previously considered unimaginable. The consequences are far-reaching, impacting communities and ecosystems in ways that were once considered improbable.
The Psychology of Underestimation
Despite the mounting evidence, experts suggest a dangerous disconnect exists between scientific understanding and public perception. A University of Georgia meteorology professor noted that people often base their preparedness on past experiences, leading to a false sense of security. This “normalcy bias” – the tendency to underestimate the severity of a threat based on past experiences – can be particularly dangerous in a world where storms are growing more fierce.
The recent Texas flooding serves as a prime example. Despite the region’s history of flooding, the sheer volume of rainfall experienced in a matter of hours was unprecedented. Yet, the professor observed statements from residents suggesting they were accustomed to flooding, demonstrating a failure to recognize the shifting baseline of risk.
A Call for Proactive Adaptation
Shifting public perspective is crucial, according to an extreme weather social scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The message must be clear: even if you haven’t experienced a major disaster, the risk is increasing, and past experiences are no longer reliable predictors of future outcomes. “If you’re used to some degree of nuisance flooding, every so often, look at what happened in Texas and realize that this is a shifting baseline,” she stated.
Ignoring the problem won’t make it disappear. Experts emphasize that surviving past extreme events can create a dangerous overconfidence, leading individuals to believe they are prepared for anything. As one researcher at the University of Colorado cautioned, “Just because I’ve lived through a fire or a flood or a hurricane or a tornado, that does not mean that the next time is going to look like the last time.”
Systemic Failures and Eroding Capacity
The challenge extends beyond individual perception. Our infrastructure is aging and increasingly vulnerable, and population growth is driving more people into harm’s way, particularly in coastal areas. Furthermore, the ability to prepare for and react to extreme weather hasn’t kept pace with the escalating threat.
Compounding these issues, several experts expressed concern over the impact of past policy decisions. The mass layoffs and planned cuts to agencies like the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Weather Service, and research labs at NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey during the previous administration are seen as a significant setback. One scientist warned, “We’re destroying the capability we have that we’re going to need more and more in the future,” highlighting the loss of valuable expertise and institutional knowledge.
Planning for the Worst
Looking ahead, experts agree that a fundamental shift in mindset is required. Instead of relying on historical data, the country needs to proactively plan for worst-case scenarios. As one researcher at the University of South Carolina put it, “This is our future.”
The future, according to experts, is one of more frequent and intense fires, floods, and heat waves. The time for complacency is over; adaptation and proactive planning are no longer optional, but essential for safeguarding communities and building a more resilient future.
