SPX Set to Peak in Mid-July, Bearish Turn Expected by Late October, Analysis Suggests
A new analysis of market trends indicates the S&P 500 (SPX) is poised to reach a peak around July 16, followed by a potential downturn led by bearish sentiment beginning in late October. The assessment, based on a combination of post-election year seasonality and Elliott Wave (EW) Principle analysis, builds upon observations made in a previous update on June 20th.
According to the report, initial projections from June, when the SPX traded around $5960, anticipated a high between June 8 and June 12 and a low between June 16 and June 22. The index ultimately peaked on June 11 and bottomed out on June 13, largely aligning with these predictions. “So far, so good,” one analyst noted, suggesting the initial correlation held.
Fast forward to today, the SPX is trading in the $6230s, having successfully bottomed out on June 23 at $5943. This confirms the timing of the predicted low, and the subsequent 4- to 6-week rally is nearing its conclusion. However, the June 23 low was slightly less pronounced than initially expected, prompting a recalibration of the wave count to an extended, subdividing orange W-5 of the gray W-iii/c.
This adjustment, the analysis states, further strengthens the alignment with typical post-election year seasonality. The updated forecast predicts a peak (gray W-iii/c) around July 16, a subsequent low (gray W-iv) on July 21, and a final high around August 2 (gray W-v). If market patterns continue as they did in 2025, a significant bearish trend is anticipated to take hold after August, lasting at least until late October.
The gray W-iii/c is currently projected to reach approximately $6380-$6460, though analysts have established “raised warning levels” to monitor for potential deviations from this range. Following this peak, a gray W-iv is expected to last roughly one week, ideally reaching around $6025 +/- $100, with the upper end of that range being preferred. The subsequent gray W-v could then peak at approximately $6815 +/- $100.
Notably, the $6815 +/- $100 level falls within a long-standing third wave target zone of $6738-$7121. This suggests the potential for a significant market top this summer. The analysis further anticipates that the black W-4 phase could last approximately one year, mirroring the duration of the black W-2 phase. “.
The report underscores the importance of continued monitoring as the market navigates these projected waves.
