Putin’s murderous struggle in Ukraine has entered its eighth week, and the facts on the ground do not bode well. The sinking of “Moscow”, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, last Wednesday, as a result of Ukrainian missiles hitting, is a severe blow to the Kremlin.
Beyond the human damage to the most impressive warship, which served the Russian navy for about eight decades, and beyond the heavy damage caused to the command and control center, as well as the air defense system of the entire Black Sea navy, it undermines the military’s prestige. .
In addition, as part of the Zero Zoom-Game approach (loss of one is the gain of the other), whether carried out directly using Ukrainian Neptune missiles and / or with the assistance of NATO and Western forces, the sinking of the Russian warship is a military achievement. It is extremely important for Ukraine, and even beyond: it is a huge propaganda and image victory for President Vladimir Zlansky as part of the global consciousness struggle he has been leading on the world stage since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
The sinking of the flagship is an important event in itself, especially as it joins a series of previous failures, not to mention critical weaknesses, of the Russian war machine, as they have recently been expressed. Reports on social media describe the low morale among the Russian forces fighting on Ukrainian soil, in stark contrast to the high morale that characterizes the Ukrainian forces. In addition, according to Ukrainian military estimates, some 18,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fighting so far, including commanders and senior military officers, and not 1,350 soldiers, as Moscow reports.
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If that is not enough, then these days a new trend is emerging in the Russian army, which reflects a gloomier picture. From various sources in Russia, including publications of legal aid organizations (such as the Agora legal-aid NGO), it turns out that more and more soldiers are now refusing to return to the area after a vacation at home to fight and kill their Ukrainian brethren.
The refusal of thousands of fighters and military units to take part in a “special military operation” in Ukraine, let alone a murderous war led by the cruel dictator, complicates the operational aspect and the redeployment of the Russian war machine in the fight against Donbas in the east. Beyond that, their refusal indicates a distrust of the Russian public in Putin and the goals of the war, especially in light of the scale of mass killings and killings in Ukraine.
There is no doubt that the sinking of the Russian flagship could significantly increase the distrust and lack of public support for the Kremlin and its leader. However, it is important to understand that for Putin, the ringing of “Moscow” is seen as a critical injury to his “soft underbelly”, and precisely because of this it could be a trigger that will lead to further escalation in the struggle, if only to show significant military achievement and save some Slavic pride, ego and respect. Trampled.
If that is not enough, then contextual circumstances, chief among them the public statements of Finland and Sweden about their intention to join NATO, are what provide Putin with an “excuse” to step up his steps.
The author is an expert on geopolitics, global terrorism and international crises