Arizona Balances Groundwater Gains with Looming Colorado River Deadline
Arizona officials are celebrating a recent victory in groundwater conservation, but the focus is rapidly shifting to securing a long-term agreement on Colorado River allocations before a federal deadline of October 2026. The state faces a complex path forward, navigating legislative hurdles and internal disagreements as it seeks to protect its water future.
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs signed the “Ag-to-Urban” groundwater legislation into law on July 29, a move hailed as a step toward responsible water management. The legislation allows housing developers facing water restrictions to purchase water rights from retiring farmers, a strategy projected to conserve 10 million acre-feet of water and facilitate the construction of tens of thousands of new homes. However, officials acknowledge this is just one piece of a much larger puzzle.
“Ensuring that Arizona gets our fair share of Colorado River water is critical,” Governor Hobbs stated following the bill signing. “It’s maybe the most critical issue in front of us in terms of water management.”
Colorado River Negotiations Intensify
The immediate priority is reaching a consensus among the seven states that share the Colorado River – Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming – on a new operating agreement to replace the original Colorado River Compact. Negotiations have been fraught with tension, centering on how to allocate usage cuts amid ongoing drought conditions.
A new proposal put forward by the Lower Basin states (Arizona, California, and Nevada) in late June appears to have gained some traction with the Upper Basin states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming). This proposal utilizes a formula based on actual river flows to determine each state’s allocation, a departure from previous approaches.
However, the stakes are high. The federal government has warned that if a draft agreement isn’t presented by November 11, it will intervene directly, potentially leading to legal challenges. Arizona has already allocated $3 million in its state budget to prepare for potential litigation to defend its water rights.
Unique Legislative Challenges for Arizona
Arizona faces a unique challenge in ratifying any new Colorado River Compact: it is the only state in the basin requiring legislative approval for any agreement negotiated by the governor. This requirement adds a layer of complexity, as securing a majority vote from the state’s 90 lawmakers could prove difficult.
State Senator T.J. Shope, a Republican who championed the “Ag-to-Urban” legislation, is already focused on building a “game plan” for legislative approval. “We have a tough road ahead of us with Colorado River negotiations,” Shope said. “Arizona must have a united front as we approach the Colorado River.”
Internal Divisions and Political Considerations
The path to a unified front is not without obstacles. Groundwater management has historically been a contentious issue in the Arizona legislature, with Republican Representative Gail Griffin wielding significant influence over water policy in rural communities. Griffin has consistently opposed restrictions on farmers and local control over water resources.
Furthermore, the Republican-controlled legislature may be hesitant to deliver legislative wins for Governor Hobbs before her reelection campaign in 2026. Concerns about the Department of Water Resources and its director, Tom Buschatzke, and their handling of groundwater management also contribute to the political complexities.
Despite these challenges, Shope remains optimistic. He believes that recent compromises, such as the “Ag-to-Urban” bill, can build momentum for bipartisan cooperation on water issues. “As long as I’m around, we’re going to try to find that consensus, to make sure that we’re all speaking with one united voice so that Arizona is in the prime position to continue to grow,” Shope stated.
The coming months will be critical as Arizona navigates these complex negotiations and internal divisions. The state’s ability to secure a favorable outcome on the Colorado River will have profound implications for its future economic growth and sustainability.
