Belarus Five Years On: Lukashenko‘s Grip Tightens as 2020 Protests Fade into Repression
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Five years after the largest protests in Belarus’ history erupted, the nation remains firmly under the autocratic rule of Alexander Lukashenko, with little sign of meaningful change on the horizon. The demonstrations, sparked by the disputed August 9, 2020, presidential election widely considered rigged in Lukashenko’s favor, were met with brutal repression and have largely been erased from public view, leaving a chilling legacy of fear and political imprisonment.
A Nation’s Uprising Silenced
The protests of 2020 were remarkable in their breadth,fueled not only by the fraudulent election results but also by widespread anger over the government’s inadequate response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the arrests of prominent opposition figures. A diverse coalition – including women,students,workers,actors,athletes,and even diplomats and educators – took to the streets to voice their dissent.However, the country’s security forces responded with a violent crackdown, resulting in numerous injuries and deaths, with injured protestors often taken directly from police stations to hospitals.
The uprising gained an unexpected face in Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a former housewife who stepped into the presidential race after her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was imprisoned. Despite garnering significant support, Tsikhanouskaya was ultimately forced into exile in Lithuania, marking a devastating blow to the opposition.
The Erasure of History
Today, evidence of the 2020 protests is rapidly disappearing. Self-reliant media outlets that reported on the events have been shut down or forced to operate from abroad, their websites blocked by Belarusian authorities. Citizens, fearing retribution, have deleted personal photos and videos documenting the protests, effectively erasing a crucial record of the uprising. Articles, reports, archives, and social media posts have also vanished.
despite this systematic effort to erase the past, the scale of the regime’s repression is becoming increasingly tough to conceal. According to the human rights center “Viasna,” at least 8,519 people have been prosecuted for political reasons since 2020, with over 60,000 individuals imprisoned.
Prominent political prisoners include Maria Kolesnikova, an activist and flutist sentenced to 11 years in prison, and banker Viktor babaryka, serving a 14-year sentance. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, currently imprisoned, is forced to work six days a week in a penal colony, and his health is reportedly deteriorating, with problems affecting his eyesight and legs.
A Regime Willing to Trade Prisoners for Concessions
The persecution of Belarusians continues, with over 1,700 arrests made as the beginning of the year on politically motivated charges. The criteria for detention are increasingly broad, ranging from participation in the 2020 protests to simply “liking” content deemed “extremist” – a label now applied to all independent media, including Deutsche Welle (DW). Even creating jewelry depicting the belarusian map has been deemed a punishable offense.
In recent months, the regime has released small groups of political prisoners, totaling over 300 individuals. In June 2025, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was among those released, coinciding with a meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg.
Lukashenko has openly stated his willingness to release thousands of political prisoners in exchange for concessions from the West. on July 31, he declared, “If you want them, take them! What do you offer in return?” after discussions with a US delegation.
What Future for Belarus?
Experts suggest the West could play a more active role in securing the release of political prisoners through negotiation and offering Lukashenko concessions in areas such as reputation and diplomacy. Some have even proposed considering a partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for an end to the migration crisis and the release of prisoners.
Though, a senior analyst cautioned that such steps are unlikely to fundamentally alter the situation in Belarus, but could improve the prospects for individual victims. Ultimately, the fate of those imprisoned remains largely in the hands of the West, but as one observer noted, Belarus has not been and remains a low priority, with no significant indication of increased engagement.
