BALTIMORE, Md., August 14, 2025
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are in full swing, with the BMW Championship kicking off this week as the second of three crucial postseason tournaments. Last week, Justin Rose pulled off a stunning upset at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, defying odds of +10000. The question on many golf fans’ minds is whether Rose can repeat that magic at the BMW Championship.
Longshots to Watch at the BMW Championship
Table of Contents
Only the top 50 golfers remain in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
- Justin Rose, a surprising winner last week, carries +4000 odds.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +230 favorite, followed by Rory McIlroy at +700.
- J.J. Spaun, despite a playoff loss, is considered a top longshot with +3000 odds.
- Ludvig Aberg, with his strong driving game, is listed at 25-1.
- Ben Griffin offers boom-or-bust potential at 40-1.
Scottie Scheffler enters the BMW Championship as the heavy favorite at +230, with Rory McIlroy close behind at +700. The tournament begins Thursday, August 14, at Caves Valley Golf Club near Baltimore, Maryland.
Rose, who defeated J.J. Spaun in a three-hole playoff last week, now sits at +4000. Spaun, despite the tough playoff loss, is also being eyed as a promising longshot by a predictive model, with odds of +3000 for the BMW Championship.
Ludvig Aberg Tipped as a Strong Contender
Ludvig Aberg, the 25-year-old phenom, finished tied for ninth last week, snapping a string of less consistent performances. This marked his second top-10 finish in his last three events. Aberg, who won the 2023 RSM Classic in just his 15th PGA Tour start and finished second in his Masters debut in 2024, boasts impressive driving stats. He ranks 10th in strokes gained: off the tee and is in the top 25 for total driving and driving distance on the PGA Tour this year. Aberg is currently listed at 25-1 odds.
J.J. Spaun’s Resilience Rewarded
Losing a playoff after three extra holes, especially when a $3.6 million payout was on the line, is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow. However, Spaun’s second-place finish earned him a substantial $2.16 million. The model anticipates Spaun will again be a strong contender at the BMW Championship. The 34-year-old captured his first major title this year, winning the U.S. Open at odds of +12500, making him one of the biggest longshot major winners in history. Despite significantly shorter odds this week, the model sees continued value in Spaun. He is third in the FedEx Cup standings and seventh on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this year. Spaun is available at 30-1 odds.
Ben Griffin’s Upside Appeal
Ben Griffin, 29, has showcased a “boom-or-bust” season, making him an intriguing longshot pick for those looking for upside. Griffin has secured two victories this year, with his most recent win coming at the Charles Schwab Challenge on May 25. He followed that up with a second-place finish at The Memorial Tournament a week later. Last week, he finished tied for ninth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, following a T-11 at the Wyndham Championship and missing cuts in his two prior starts. Griffin has achieved five top-four finishes this season and ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained. He is currently at 40-1 odds.
For a deeper dive into the projected leaderboard and more detailed predictions, including forecasts for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas, a comprehensive model that has accurately predicted 16 golf majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024 and 2025, is available.
