Morocco Issues Stark Warning to Spain’s Potential Next Leader, Feijóo, Over Western Sahara Policy
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Morocco is signaling it will not hesitate to leverage migration flows and other pressure tactics if Spain’s next government, potentially led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the Popular Party (PP), deviates from the current administration’s policies regarding the Western Sahara. The escalating tensions underscore the strategic importance of the region and Morocco’s willingness to assert its interests.
A Looming Shift in Spanish Foreign Policy?
The government in Rabat is closely monitoring Feijóo’s rise and preparing for a potential change in Madrid. According to sources, Morocco views Feijóo’s publicly stated intentions – to revisit Spain’s position on Western Sahara, maintain neutrality in North Africa, and normalize relations with Algeria – with considerable skepticism. These intentions represent a potential reversal of the course set by current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a shift Morocco is determined to prevent.
“The message they send is that the new government, if it is formed, must respect Sánchez’s current policy; If there are changes, Morocco will act, and the first thing it will do is open its hand to irregular immigration to Spain,” a security expert consulted by ABC stated. The specter of the May 18, 2021, incident – when thousands of migrants entered Ceuta – looms large as a demonstration of Morocco’s capabilities.
Diplomatic Offensive and Media Warnings
Morocco has begun a multifaceted campaign to convey its concerns. A series of parliamentary initiatives by the PP, Feijóo’s visit to Melilla, and a meeting between PP officials and representatives of the Polisario Front have been cited as provocations. These actions, according to Moroccan state media, constitute a “diplomatic, media and political offensive” against Rabat.
The warnings are being amplified through Le360, a Moroccan digital outlet owned by Mohamed Mounir Majidi, personal secretary to King Mohamed VI. In a scathing assessment, the outlet accused the PP of not defending Spain and “insisting on fighting against a reality that has already surpassed him.” The visit to Melilla was framed as a “symbolic provocation” intended to stir internal Spanish public opinion.
The Western Sahara Dispute at the Core
The core of the dispute lies in the status of Western Sahara, a territory claimed by Morocco but with a significant independence movement represented by the Polisario Front. Sánchez’s government in 2022 shifted Spain’s long-held position of neutrality, expressing support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for the region. This move, while easing tensions with Rabat, has angered some within Spain and drawn criticism internationally.
Several recent parliamentary actions by the PP signal a potential return to a more traditional Spanish stance. On November 17, a PP-sponsored motion passed urging the government to “respect international law and UN resolutions” in Western Sahara and allocate €7 million to Sahrawi refugees. On November 18, another motion called for the restoration of full relations with Algeria, which were strained following Spain’s shift on the Sahara. The PP also reaffirmed the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination, seeking to recover Spain’s historical position on the territory.
Beyond Immigration: Economic and Security Concerns
Beyond the potential for increased migration, Spain relies heavily on Morocco for cooperation on two critical fronts: controlling illegal immigration and combating jihadist terrorism. Cooperation in the latter area is particularly vital given the security situation in the Sahel region and the influence of extremist groups.
“They have a very powerful weapon and they will not hesitate to use it,” one source stated, referring to Morocco’s ability to influence migration flows. Experts warn that disrupting this cooperation could have serious consequences for Spain’s security. Furthermore, a recent legal study published by Atalayar suggests that Morocco may assert claims to the territorial waters of the Canary Islands following a recent UN resolution on the Sahara.
Deterrence and the Path Forward
Some analysts argue that Spain must demonstrate a capacity for deterrence to avoid being overly reliant on Morocco. This could involve strengthening economic ties with other partners, bolstering its defense capabilities, and potentially making Morocco’s relations with Europe more difficult.
The first step for a Feijóo-led government, according to sources, would be to clarify the precise wording of the letter sent by Sánchez to the King of Morocco outlining Spain’s shift on the Sahara. “Because it is not the same to say that Morocco’s proposal is the most realistic option than to say the only possible one,” a diplomat explained.
Despite the warnings, the PP has indicated it will not alter its course. Party officials have stated they will continue to meet with whomever they choose, including representatives of the Polisario Front, and will not cease visits to Ceuta and Melilla. However, they insist any relationship with Morocco will not come “at any price” and will not compromise Spanish sovereignty or the interests of its citizens.
Morocco can be expected to test the PP and potentially respond with increased immigration pressure, a tactic it has employed with successive Spanish governments, regardless of their political affiliation. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Spain and Morocco can navigate this delicate situation and maintain a stable relationship.
