Venezuela’s Power Struggle: Machado, Rodríguez, and the Shadow of Trump
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Venezuela’s future hangs in the balance, not solely on the ambitions of its political leaders, but on the whims of an external power broker: Donald Trump. The intensifying rivalry between María Corina Machado and Delcy Rodríguez is unfolding under the watchful eye of the former U.S. president, who wields considerable influence over the nation’s political trajectory. This contest isn’t simply about domestic policy; it’s a high-stakes battle for favor with Washington, and ultimately, control of a nation whose sovereignty has been significantly compromised.
A Divided Venezuela: Two Paths Forward
Delcy Rodríguez represents what some see as the third iteration of chavismo, attempting to navigate a post-Maduro, post-Chávez Venezuela. Her strategy centers on presenting a path toward internal acceptance and international tolerance, promising to address basic needs like healthcare and education, and potentially reviving the core tenet of Hugo Chávez’s legacy: the redistribution of Venezuela’s vast oil wealth. This vision is actively promoted through a robust social media campaign aimed at establishing her as a credible executive leader.
However, Rodríguez faces an uphill battle. Despite being positioned by Trump as a stabilizing force against potential chaos, she struggles with widespread public rejection. According to a recent survey by The Economist, she currently polls at less than 13%, lagging significantly behind Machado’s projected 43%. While the U.S. currently manages Venezuela’s oil output, limiting the government’s financial flexibility, the ruling party retains access to substantial funds held by proxies. Adding to her challenges, recent reports indicate that Rodríguez is a priority target in ongoing DEA investigations involving allegations of money laundering, drug trafficking, and gold smuggling. Despite these hurdles, she maintains support from influential figures within Trump’s Mar-a-Lago circle, who reportedly advocated for her favor with the U.S. president.
In contrast, María Corina Machado enters the fray with significant moral capital. Having been recognized as an opposition candidate – despite later being disqualified by the government – she embodies the democratic aspirations of a majority of Venezuelans and was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. Her background as an engineer and her involvement in civil society organizations, such as Súmate, lend her a technocratic credibility.
Machado’s platform centers on reopening Venezuela to global investment in key sectors like energy, technology, and tourism, evoking a vision of a revitalized Venezuela reminiscent of the prosperous 1970s. Her slogan, “Make Venezuela Great Again” – or MVENGA (pronounced ¡VENGA!) – encapsulates this ambition, promising not only economic prosperity but also strengthened institutions and a return to national pride. A key moment in bolstering her position was a recent visit to the White House, though details of the discussions remain largely undisclosed. While the presentation of a medal to Trump dominated headlines, the visit likely served to mend a fractured relationship between Machado and the U.S. president, stemming from previous coordination issues.
Trump’s Intervention and a Precarious Sovereignty
The dynamic between Machado and Rodríguez is fundamentally shaped by Trump’s intervention. He is not a neutral observer, but rather a “plenipotentiary intervenor” with his own priorities, dictating timelines, influencing incentives, and controlling access to support. As one analyst noted, “Trump views this situation through the lens of a dealmaker, assessing which leader can best serve his interests.”
Both leaders recognize the necessity of courting Trump’s favor, but their positions are markedly different. Rodríguez aims to manage a controlled implosion of the chavismo regime while preserving its core elements, while Machado seeks a complete break with the past and a full-scale democratic transition. However, both are potentially operating as “puppets in a game that surpasses them,” with Venezuela’s sovereignty increasingly mortgaged to external powers.
Escalating Tensions and an Uncertain Future
The rivalry between Machado and Rodríguez is deeply personal and strategic. Machado has openly accused Rodríguez of corruption and human rights abuses, while Rodríguez has dismissed Machado as a pawn of foreign interests. Despite their mutual disdain, both leaders acknowledge each other’s strengths. Rodríguez, a veteran political operator with over two decades of experience, understands the intricacies of power, while Machado possesses a level of moral and symbolic legitimacy that is difficult to match.
Looking ahead, a negotiated settlement appears unlikely. Machado has argued that past negotiations with the regime have only served to buy time and perpetuate deception. The most probable scenario, therefore, is an escalation of conflict, particularly as one leader feels their grip on power slipping. This rivalry risks becoming a trap, not only for Machado and Rodríguez but for Venezuela itself. As one senior official stated, “Trump may incline the playing field in favor of one or the other, depending on who he can use.” If the outcome is merely a change in management under continued U.S. control, the true owners of Venezuela – its people – will remain disenfranchised.
